Up until a few days ago I would have said quite slim, now I really don’t know. It’s an awful lot of time and resources used by Putin for an elaborate bluff. And as above the sudden “escalation” of the situation in Eastern Ukraine is what worries me. That is the pretext and a trick as old as time.
Russia is a huge country but it must be remembered that most of it is made up of Siberia, which is basically frozen tundra. So the amount of land suitable for cultivation is relatively small in proportion to the population. The Ukraine by contrast has some of the most fertile land in the world. Indeed the flag of the Ukraine
is a depiction of a blue sky over a wheat field. Ukraine has been the bread basket of Russia since Tsarist times. So Putins .... interest .... is nothing new in terms of Russian history.
Remember also the Russian economy is heavily dependent on extractive industries, and with the west committed to move away from fossil fuels over the next few decades their economic outlook is dire. I guess he thinks he ain’t got
tit to lose. Why do you think Saudi Arabia, who are in the same boat, are suddenly buying football clubs, pushing for Western tourism, and buying stakes in some of the biggest Western companies?
There is going to be a major world shift over the next few decades. Saving the environment might, ironically, plunge the world into war. Because someone pays the price, and at the moment that’s Russia.