I'll guess 4:59:57 (That's my PB)
Great start then something drastic will happen.
Great start then something drastic will happen.
thewelshrunner & kellogs_ontherun #7 All in, smug grin, let’s manifest Boston by doing more colouring in
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I'll guess 4:28 if she makes it to the start line 
Given she was starting to die over 11 miles recently… I think it’s going to be another bonk
I’m going 5:10.
We've given her that benefit of the doubt many times before (remember Berlin last year when she had great training?) and then magically got sick the day before and eeked out a 4:45 marathon? Or London where it was even worse? But, maybe I'm just being too cynical about it and she'll squeak out a solid 4:15.
If she makes it to the start line, it will be interesting to see how she goes about the race.
Of course, if this is a legit BQ attempt, she'll need to go through the first half in about 1:45-1:50. If she tries to do that, I can see her bonking spectacularly and it could be a DNF or 5 hour+ sh*tshow.
If she's more realistic, and meets herself where she's currently at fitness and ability wise, she's got a much better chance of maybe running a steady 4:20ish (which would be a big but realistic improvement and probably close to what she should have been aiming for all along).
Of course, if this is a legit BQ attempt, she'll need to go through the first half in about 1:45-1:50. If she tries to do that, I can see her bonking spectacularly and it could be a DNF or 5 hour+ sh*tshow.
If she's more realistic, and meets herself where she's currently at fitness and ability wise, she's got a much better chance of maybe running a steady 4:20ish (which would be a big but realistic improvement and probably close to what she should have been aiming for all along).
I’m going for a bonkathon at 4:55. I do think she will actually start this race but I think she’ll go out too fast and bonk at 10 miles.
I’m guessing she’ll go out too fast and bonk. I’d guess around the 4:30 mark which would still be an awesome achievement.
Using the HM time x 2 + 20min rough estimate, she’d be on route to 4ish hours. But her training has not been remotely marathon focused and I think ego will trump reality and she’ll go out too fast (no doubt has given a much faster time than ability so will once again get swept up by the MUCH faster runners) and bonk before she even gets to the half way mark and her head will get the better of her. So I would guess 4:40 but I’m still not convinced she will get to the start line.
Do you put an estimated finish time for Amsterdam? Guarantee she’s put herself down for 3:30 and if she doesn’t have to give proof, she’ll be in the wrong starting pen for sure. Just looked up the starting waves for Amsterdam, if she gets a pink or orange number then she’s put too fast a time as her estimated finish.
It’s crazy that with all the hours, miles and HARD WORK (
) she puts in to focussing on JUST running and training for some marathon or another that she hasn’t nailed how to properly pace one.
I reckon my best ever executed race was my very first marathon (London) .. trained for a mara pace of 6.30 min/km and on the day that was my average pace
. Did all my long runs at that pace, built up to one x 30km longest run and my peak week was 50 miles. Never nailed my pacing quite like that since 
) she puts in to focussing on JUST running and training for some marathon or another that she hasn’t nailed how to properly pace one.I reckon my best ever executed race was my very first marathon (London) .. trained for a mara pace of 6.30 min/km and on the day that was my average pace
. Did all my long runs at that pace, built up to one x 30km longest run and my peak week was 50 miles. Never nailed my pacing quite like that since 
I am throwing my hat in for 4.20.
A few months back I thought she might smash 4 hours but her training approach has been bizarre these last few weeks. She seems to get incredibly stressed in the run up to race and it goes to pot. She does better when there's no pressure (e.g her Severn bridge half pb recently). So don't understand why she puts the pressure on herself with ridiculous unachievable goals.
A few months back I thought she might smash 4 hours but her training approach has been bizarre these last few weeks. She seems to get incredibly stressed in the run up to race and it goes to pot. She does better when there's no pressure (e.g her Severn bridge half pb recently). So don't understand why she puts the pressure on herself with ridiculous unachievable goals.
I just think she isn't even going to start at this rate. If she does maybe she will PB but she wont be near a BQ
It’s 3451 miles to Boston from Amsterdam and I think that’s closer than she will be to a BQ.
4.40 with a stomach issue around 10/12 miles
4.40 with a stomach issue around 10/12 miles
a round 5
If she starts I reckon 4.23 on a good day but could be way slower depending on how fast she does the first half (ie too fast so she bonks and can’t do the latter half as not trained at any sort of sustained MP) I don’t think she will sub 4. And BQ? No. Just no.
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