Looks like it’s going to be a long time before we get real numbers, if ever, even from democratic countries.
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Italy has underestimated its coronavirus death toll by a third, or more than 6,000 people, a researcher has claimed as systems across Europe used to measure fatalities come under scrutiny.
“For every two sufferers in Italy there is another one you can’t see,” Matteo Villa, of the Italian Institute for Political Studies, said.
According to official figures there have been more than 13,000 fatalities in Italy, but thousands who die of the virus at home or in care homes are not counted because they are not being tested, Mr Villa said.
They are, however, showing up in overall death records for last month, which have risen on previous years. Mr Villa said that the difference was “mostly attributable to the virus”, adding: “Some of the increase will be people who die of other illnesses because they cannot find a hospital bed due to the crisis, but that will be partly offset by the decline in road fatalities due to Italy’s lockdown.”
Records released by town halls in Bergamo, at the heart of the outbreak, reveal that the number of uncounted virus deaths may be even higher than Mr Villa’s estimate. The northern province, which has a population of 1.1 million, officially registered 2,060 virus deaths last month yet total deaths rose by 4,500, more than double that.
Increasing Italy’s death toll by 50 per cent would drive up the mortality rate for sufferers to 18 per cent, far higher than the 9 per cent seen in the UK. The explanation may be that Italy’s count of more than 110,000 cases is also short of the mark, with estimates of the real number ranging from 400,000 to six million.
Yesterday, Italy registered 760 deaths over the previous 24 hours, taking the official total to 13,915.
In Spain Alba Vergés, the Catalan health minister, has admitted that the region’s death toll could be higher as only sufferers diagnosed in hospital are counted. He said that officials were trying to obtain more complete figures from funeral homes.
The mayor of the Catalan town of Igualada said that 140 people had died in his area last month, double the figure last year, but only 40 were officially listed as coronavirus fatalities. He attributed the gap to a lack of testing.
French officials admit that their country’s death toll, of 4,032 on April 1, is an underestimate because it only includes those registered in hospital. The discrepancy has brought claims of a government plot to reduce the death toll artificially.
The French government said that at least 884 people had died of coronavirus in nursing homes since the start of the epidemic, adding that this was likely to be a significant underestimate.
Jérôme Salomon, a senior health official, said the death toll in nursing homes was based on “very partial” figures, suggesting that it could in reality be higher.
Steven Van Gucht, a Belgian virologist and director of the country’s coronavirus crisis centre, said that deaths recorded outside hospitals in Belgium were all being counted, sometimes with no test. “If the doctor suspects it we will include it in our statistics,” he added.
Belgium has recorded almost as many deaths as Germany despite their vastly different population sizes.
it’s not my place to direct the conversation on the thread and maybe im burying my head in the sand but it’s disturbing,
we pet dogs in the sand, we don’t add mayo.
I feel sad because I genuinely enjoy working and am worried about how I'm going to fill my time productively and remain in a good mental state. Don't get me wrong, I know I'm incredibly lucky to be in this position, as I'll still receive some of my income whereas others won't receive anything if they were made redundant! I don't want to seem like I'm being a brat as I know I'm lucky but I just feel so worried and sad. I know at the end of it there still might not be a job for me to return to. Has anybody else felt like this? How is everyone filling their time productively?
