I'm sure there are many better experts when it comes to swim safety and I don't claim to be one but I can share this insight as I have taught children to swim.Would it really be possible to just throw yourself into the river though? I thought it was really difficult to purposely "drown".
Also, I hope they aren't basing this purely on her having had anxiety or depression in the past. Many people have suffered at some point but that doesn't mean we'd end our lives.
I still think it was a horrific accident caused from some sort of medical emergency as she approached the water resulting in her falling in.
We run drowning prevention courses where we ask parents to bring their kids in their clothes so we can teach them not to panic.
Most accidents for kids in water happen when they are fully clothed, even wearing a nappy, so layers, shoes/boots and jacket on. Surprisingly, clothes float in the water with you but think about when you intentionally swim, you are wearing some form of swimming costume.
It's the cold water shock that will get you. Your local pool is probably regulated around 29-31°, shock can be in bodies of water at 15° or less.
So we have taught many kids how to stay calm as the your body adjusts to the cold climate (even though the pool is warmer), keep their heads above water by rolling onto their back and control their breathing. Clothes can in some cases actually help you float as they too float in the water (so your swimming ability feels different in jackets and shoes etc.). Most common thing for cold water shock to cause is a heart attack because it raises your blood pressure, or you can gasp and take in lots of water.
Wet clothes make it horrendously difficult to lift yourself out of the water as the clothes are no longer floating, they become heavy and then weigh you down. This is when you would require assistance/rescue.
My fear for Nicola is that she has in fact become unconscious before entering the water - blood clot or dizzy spell.
To hold your breath means you are conscious, if you are unconscious, your lungs fill with water and you sink to the bottom. That's why drowning isn't some big splashing event, it's quiet and eerily calm and lifeguards need to be alert at all times. I have watched many terrifying training videos.
She may also have fell in and was in shock, couldn't call for help (or no one heard her) or even the shock caused her to lose consciousness and she drowned. It doesn't take long at all
Also huge sidebar: please never, ever buy a blue swimming costume for you or your kids, as they are so difficult to be seen at the bottom of a swimming pool. I hope this makes sense and I am in no way a professional but just what little experience I have with swimming lessons and drowning prevention. Breaks my heart seeing all the blues and greens every summer - especially for boys. Stick with reds, oranges and pinks for swimming pools and stay safe.
I sadly feel this is a case of Occam's razor, where the most likely explanation is the simplest one. It's so unsatisfying for her family if they cannot locate her. I do hope I'm wrong.
Also sorry again if this has already been discussed on previous threads.
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