Please read the recap if you are not up to date
Updates added 14th Feb
Please don't be offended if you ask a question that's answered here and you're directed back to the recap rather than given a full answer.
Timeline:
0826 Nicola left home with her children and dog
0840 Nicola dropped her children at school and spoke briefly to another parent
0843 Nicola was seen walking along the path by the river towards the bench into the lower field
0847 (approx) Nicola was seen in the lower field by another dog walker. The dogs interacted and this dog walker knows Nicola
0853 Nicola sent an email to her boss
0859 Nicola sent a message to a friend
0901 Nicola joined a zoom team meeting -
her phone was muted and her camera was off meaning her colleagues did not see or hear anything
0910 Nicola was seen in the upper field by another dog walker
0920 Nicola's phone was back in the area of the bench - this is confirmed by the Police through phone data
0930 the Zoom call ended but Nicola remained logged in
0933 Nicola's phone, along with Willow, the harness and lead were found at the bench area.
Update: the phone was on the ground in front of the bench; the harness was on the ground further down the bank towards the river (harness detail confirmed by Paul during Channel 5 Interview,
Phone source also confirming two people simultaneously found the items and dog)
1050 Willow and the phone were still at the bench area. Paul was alerted and called the Police
The phone was still connected to Nicola's zoom call which had ended at 0930.
Willow (Nicola's dog) was loose in this area.
It has not been shared whether Nicola was using wired or wireless headphones, usually had hew phone on loudspeaker, or would have had her phone to her ear, but no headphones have been reported as found.
This video shows the small distance between gate, bench and river:
Doorbell footage has been shared of Nicola leaving home the morning she went missing to show the clothing she wore:
There have been many discussions of whether this is actually Nicola, as some think it looks like her friend Emma. The fact remains that
Nicola took her girls to school, and that cannot be disputed. Another parent spoke to her at school, and one of the sightings on the walk was someone who knew her personally.
There is some confusion over
who loaded Willow into the car. During the Channel 5 interview Paul stated that if he was doing the school run and dog walk Nicola would load the girls and dog into the car, and vice versa, but that day Nicola was more organised and ready earlier than usual and she had them in the car already, even though she was the one taking them to school. He did not know why this was, just that Nicola was ready earlier than usual.
Nicola parked at school, dropped her daughters off, and started the walk from there as usual.
The fact that
Willow's harness was off is normal - it was usually removed at the gate by the bench at the start of the walk, and put back on on the way back to the car.
Willow was dry when found, meaning that she had not at any point that morning been in the water. This has been discussed at great length over the threads so please search for it if you would like to understand more, or read
this post for the quick version.
____
The lady who found them is believed to be the owner of
Wyreside Farm Caravan Park which is very close to the bench and area that Nicola is thought to have entered to the river.
This is not the same caravan site as the broken or non-functioning CCTV.
We now understand that the 'man in his 70's with the fluffy white dog' entered the bench area straight after the lady, and confirmed that the phone was on the ground approximately 2ft from the bench.
The lady secured Willow - apparently with string (we do not know why, when the harness and lead were there) - and left as she had an appointment. She recognised the dog but couldn't remember who the owner was, so called her daughter in law.
At
1050 the daughter in law attended the bench area and identified both Willow and the Lock Screen photo on the phone as Nicola's. She called Nicola's daughters' school, who in turn called Nicola's partner, Paul.
There is much speculation but no facts for the gap in time here.
Paul left home by car, calling the Police on the way to report Nicola as missing.
___
Exits from the walking route are not all covered by CCTV
Rowanwater Mobile Home Park (
YELLOW) camera was not working
Garstang Road exit (
PURPLE) is not covered by camera
CCTV
does cover the riverside path (
ORANGE) and the school (
GREEN) Police are working to contact all drivers to obtain dashcam footage where possible on the Garstang Road but there were around 700 drivers to contact. Nicola's friends held an appeal for dash cam footage here on Friday 10/2.
Caravan Parks & Campsites
There has been confusion over the caravan parks:
Wyreside (
PURPLE) is a campsite
near to the bench. The owner is alleged to have found Willow and the phone. This was searched on the day Nicola went missing.
Rowanwater (
YELLOW) is a mobile home park next to the
top field (3). The top field is where Nicola was last seen.
__
Search Efforts
A multi-agency search was conducted
the day Nicola went missing including 25 members of Bowland Pennine Mountain Rescue who contributed to the search over an 8 hour period (
Source)
Lancs Police have been using the caravan park as their base. All
empty caravans have been searched, as have local empty properties along and near to the riverbank.
Nicola’s family are keeping all possibilities open in the hope of Nicola’s safe return, which is absolutely understandable.
SGI headed by Peter Faulding assisted the search efforts at the request of the family. Unfortunately, they found no trace of Nicola in the area they searched.
On Thursday 9/2 the Police river search extended to Morecambe Bay.
On Monday 13/2 Peter Faulding announced that he is returning to the area to conduct a ground search for possible burial sites. He now believes that Nicola did not enter the river.
____
Nicola's partner Paul
Paul
has never been named as a suspect. This has always been called a missing person investigation by the Police so there are no suspects.
Paul
is the father of Nicola's daughters. The fact her refers to 'the girls' or 'her girls' is irrelevant.
Paul
has a mark on his face near his left eye which some think is a bruise; some think is from recent botox. It is visible on old photos seen by more than one person who have looked at Nicola's Facebook posts, so
it is not a bruise or botox. It's likely to be pigmentation or a birthmark.
There is some confusion over whether
Paul changed his clothes after receiving the call about Willow and the phone being found but
before leaving to look for Nicola. During the C5 interview, Paul actually said that he changed his clothes
before he received the phone call from his daughters' school.
Nicola’s partner's businesses are a frequent question: has a business which is shown on Companies House as ‘compulsory strike off’ just after Nicola’s disappearance. This does not in any way suggest financial difficulties. It purely means the company was already in the process of being closed.
He is director of another company which is still trading, and he works in a skilled industry.
It is explained
here
There is another previous company which has an address similar to Rowanwater Mobile Home Park. It is not linked to the mobile home park in any way. It is Paul and Nicola's previous house.
____
Other / Misc
The area that Nicola walked in has frequently been referred to as a park, and many posters think there will be much local CCTV and Ring doorbell coverage.
It is not a park. Nicola's walk was over fields, in the countryside, by a village. The only CCTV is on businesses that happen to be there. There is no doorbell footage because there are no houses.
Lancs Police gave an update via press conference on Tuesday 7/2 confirming that they are still focussing huge resource on the search effort and asking the general public to avoid doing anything to make this any more difficult. Transcript
here
The police have continuously stated that the most likely situation is that Nicola has sadly somehow entered the water, but they remain open to all possibilities and fully investigate all information they receive. There have been 40 detectives working on the case.
Although the water was only around 2.5-3.5ft deep where Nicola is thought to have fallen in, the bank is high and steep. The police diver had to be helped out.
Cold water shock can mean that you are incapacitated quickly and silently. Info
here
It's also possible that Nicola was unconscious before she entered the water, for example following a medical episode, or that she slipped and hit her head on rocks under the water.
This post gives more information about
why a body may not be found in a river.
A
GoFundMe page was set up on Monday 6/2 by family friend Emma with a target of £100,000. This was quickly changed after social media unrest to £50,000, then £5,000. Shortly after, the page was closed before it raised even £500, and the friend posted on Facebook to state that the family didn’t initially know she was doing it, and she was just trying to help.
Emma White, Nicola's friend, has media links. Her Father in Law is Stewart White who was a journalist / presenter on BBC Look East. She knows Dan Walker who was, until recently, a BBC breakfast presenter before moving to Channel 5.
Peter Faulding is friends with Alan Carr (chatty man), and it was Mark Williams-Thomas who asked him to approach Nicola's family to aid the search (credit to
@da1sycha1n for this info)
____
There have been mixed messages about a possible mental health element on previous threads.
Any speculation here about Nicola's mental health should come from a place of concern, not judgement.
Anyone who has struggled, or is struggling, with mental illness knows that at times it is more powerful than anything else and takes over all rational thought.
If that has played a part in Nicola going missing (which - to be clear - her family or Police have not suggested) it does not mean that she doesn't love her family, especially her children, more than anything in the world.
Please be mindful of Nicola’s family with any comments made 
wish you all well and please reach out if you are struggling 
