I'd be surprised if there are any games going on with rumours here. I honestly think he's just run out of options at this point. His body language and tone when discussing his future recently has seemed anything but bouyant.
Merc made it very clear publicly that if they don't go with Antonelli next year then the only thing on the table for anyone else in 2025 was a one year deal. Even if he was offered it, taking that would potentially leave Carlos in an even worse situation than he's in now, as unless there is a huge surprise next year or something awful happens, then the grid will be filled going into 2026 as the teams will want stability going into the new regs. (I think this is also the reason Alex cut his losses and re-signed with Williams).
Red Bull are still sounding keen to keep Checo and I doubt Max is going anywhere just yet. Even if he's shopping around for 2026 or beyond, he is not going to be in any rush to commit. He would have teams laying out the red carpet for him if he wanted to make a move. On the very off-chance a seat opens at Aston next year, Yuki could well be first in line there, especially with the performances he's putting in this year. Holding out for the off-chance of seats at either of these teams could well mean seats further down the grid start to disappear.
No seat is opening up at McLaren in the next two years at least and RB have too many drivers for seats already.
That leaves Audi, Williams, Alpine and Haas. Nobody in their right mind would trust Alpine to produce a solid engine at this point. Audi will be new to the grid. Haas aren't that appealing and current rumours there are pointing toward Bottas anyway. All the rumours so far point the Merc engine being the one to watch for 2026. Williams may be his safest bet right now. If he signs a 2 year deal there, then there is every possibility the driver market will open up again at the end of 2026, when currently Piastri and Russell at the very least will be out of contract, Merc will have had time to assess Antonelli, Audi will be a year in and everyone will know how the engines stack up. He could find opportunities opening for him then instead.
