The sooner Musk ducks off to Mars the better.
2024 US Election
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Not a fan of Kamala, but having Tim Walz as her running mate was a good idea. A former teacher with a folksy calls 'em as he sees them. Love this dig at Musk.
Walz should be given a sainthood for that comment alone
Saving this as I wish I had of done with 2016 and 2020 to compare them at this stage
Harris is on CNN in half an hour, with 13 days left there really needs to be something big to swing it in her favor.
Harris is on CNN in half an hour, with 13 days left there really needs to be something big to swing it in her favor.
Polymarket is hugely unreliable though. It's a crypto betting platform owned by Peter Thiel. Not saying anything one way or another, only that the above graphs are not going to be an accurate reflection of actual voters/votes.
Yeah it's just a betting market, but it's the biggest one and the current odds there are similar as elsewhere.
Will be interesting to see how accurate it is. A 38% vs 62% for polymarket is still very much it could go either way considering their userbase and that they can cash in at anytime.
The NYT poll of poll is showing Harris ahead on one point, with all the silent trump voters she needs to be at least 4-5 points ahead to get a clear win IMO.
I mean, even putting aside Trump vs Harris, that clip shows how truly awful she is.
Compare how great a speaker Obama is there, just speaking naturally and without needing a word-by-word script (sure, he may have rehearsed or have notes on a screen but it doesn't show). Everything about the way he can just do that is what you'd expect from a President. And then Harris, reading the lines that have been pre-prepared within an inch of their lives, looking down at those words more than she does the camera, tiresome and painful to listen to. I saw her described somewhere as the "substitute teacher of presidential candidates" (might even have been here) and it's spot on, total amateur hour when compared to Obama and others that have gone before. It'll be an absolute travesty if someone so hopeless scams her way into the White House not on any merits of her own, but purely because (a) she was the easiest for the Dems to throw into place and fund after the Biden fiasco, and (b) she isn't Trump.
In the past ten years, the whole world has fallen so hard into populism that people vote for a leader based on who they want at their BBQ.
I know it's been like that for a long while, but it's now become so bad that the media are solely reporting on sound bites where one candidate said something mildly funny about the other one. America is in a "Yaas Queen!" era, on TV, on social media, in personal interactions. Popular stuff is all pictures of Taylor Swift or Lizzo with captions like "She perfectly shuts down the haters!"
Kamala Harris fits well into this moment. It's culturally en vogue to call your opponent weird and have the media outlets report it. Not that DT isn't weird, but this momentary "Wooo, Kamala! Her quips make great content for news sites!" is not going to sustain long term. The Democrats and the media should be making more headlines and soundbites about their policies. That should be an effective way to beat Trump. But they're going for the lowest hanging fruit of "He's weird and maybe wears diapers."
I know it's been like that for a long while, but it's now become so bad that the media are solely reporting on sound bites where one candidate said something mildly funny about the other one. America is in a "Yaas Queen!" era, on TV, on social media, in personal interactions. Popular stuff is all pictures of Taylor Swift or Lizzo with captions like "She perfectly shuts down the haters!"
Kamala Harris fits well into this moment. It's culturally en vogue to call your opponent weird and have the media outlets report it. Not that DT isn't weird, but this momentary "Wooo, Kamala! Her quips make great content for news sites!" is not going to sustain long term. The Democrats and the media should be making more headlines and soundbites about their policies. That should be an effective way to beat Trump. But they're going for the lowest hanging fruit of "He's weird and maybe wears diapers."
It also seems financial prudent not to put 'Donald Trump admires Hitler' on the front of every newspaper. It's not even as if Donald is keeping his fascist tendencies secret. It's all out there. The media is a disgrace. Even The LA Times is refusing to endorse a candidate.
Kamala's campaign team has actually backed off calling Donald 'weird' for about a month now. Big mistake in my opinion because it was resonating with voters. Even you mentioned it. Donald is a being used as a Trojan Horse, it's JD Vance who is an even a bigger concern in my book.
They just seem to have given up and are going for the “We’re better than Trump” to me.
Which, yes, certainly but that is a bleeping low bar and it bit them right on the a when suddenly the tide turned against Biden and that was all they had. It also seems a wee bit hypocritical for them to be going for Trump based on his age and stumbling over words and making diaper jokes after they were up in arms about the “ageism” Biden got. If it’s fair criticism of Trump, it was fair criticism of Biden and they should have accepted it long before they did. They’ve also rightly called out Trump for his ableism before, but making fun of someone for being incontinent is equally ableism regardless of whether the cause is his age or the drugs he’s done. The Dems said kids with CP would be bullied in the playground after Trump’s vile impression of the reporter with CP, do they seriously think their diaper jokes won’t lead to bullying of kids with continence issues?
Polling is garbage. Full Stop. It's especially garbage in this US election because most of the polling companies are funded by Republican groups. We're all wise to it now. We were wise to it when Hillary was supposed to win.
Trump's whole grift is for the polls to 'look close' and then on election day when Kamala wins, he can say: "Oh, but the polls looked so close ... it's a fix". Then every bleeping legal claim for fraud you can conceive of will be wheeled-out. Frivolous lawsuits by Republicans are already being laid upon jurisdictions all over America right now claiming voter-fraud. It will be a good two weeks untill after election day untill there is a result. (Arizona have already said that they estimate it'll take 12 days untill all votes are counted (don't ask me why).
Do yourself a favour and don't bother watching or listening to all the media outlets and their 'US Election Night' coverage, it'll be a waste of your time. This result won't be sorted out for weeks, even when Kamala clearly wins. It kinda makes me proud to be British, where we have the mental capacity and maturity to handover the baton of power with no fuss whatsoever, maybe even over a cup of tea and a handshake.
Trump's whole grift is for the polls to 'look close' and then on election day when Kamala wins, he can say: "Oh, but the polls looked so close ... it's a fix". Then every bleeping legal claim for fraud you can conceive of will be wheeled-out. Frivolous lawsuits by Republicans are already being laid upon jurisdictions all over America right now claiming voter-fraud. It will be a good two weeks untill after election day untill there is a result. (Arizona have already said that they estimate it'll take 12 days untill all votes are counted (don't ask me why).
Do yourself a favour and don't bother watching or listening to all the media outlets and their 'US Election Night' coverage, it'll be a waste of your time. This result won't be sorted out for weeks, even when Kamala clearly wins. It kinda makes me proud to be British, where we have the mental capacity and maturity to handover the baton of power with no fuss whatsoever, maybe even over a cup of tea and a handshake.
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BIB except when it was Brexit and the remainers are still doing everything they can to overturn it and calling brexit voters stupid.
And the Polls for that were all saying the remain vote would win by a huge majority.
So yes they are garbage.
At the end of the day a vote is a secret ballot and lots of people will say they voted one way when they didn't.
Vote intention polls are a waste of time.
I think the polling for brexit was way off because they'd never done a vote like that before so had no benchmarks.
Since 2016 and 2020 they poll a lot more. The last test for the 2022 midterms was pretty accurate.
The polls have always underestimated the trump vote. A lot more complicated than them just being trash.
Harris isn't looking good but 11 days is a long time in politics.
www.pewresearch.org
Since 2016 and 2020 they poll a lot more. The last test for the 2022 midterms was pretty accurate.
The polls have always underestimated the trump vote. A lot more complicated than them just being trash.
Harris isn't looking good but 11 days is a long time in politics.
Key things to know about U.S. election polling in 2024
Polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well – and what they cannot.
www.pewresearch.org
If his fascist tendencies are so clear and apparent and “all out there”, why do you think so many people, including people of colour, want to vote for him? Isn’t it a bit weird that so many millions of people would actively choose to live in a fascist regime?
Erm Hitler was democratically elected….. when people hear Trumps policies they think he doesn’t mean me, he won’t come after me, he just means those horrible immigrants/black people/liberals.
Trump refuses to accept he lost the last free and fair election, he staged an insurrection because of it, he was quite happy for his Vice President to be hung - that alone should ban him from even running from President before we get to all the other tit he’s done.
But hey Harris stumbles over her words now and then and *checks notes* laughs so obviously they are both the same.
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