2024 US Election

[Yel]

[

The betting odds don't count for much though. Hilary Clinton was of course hugely favoured to win in 2016

Iirc 2016 is the one and only year they got it wrong, but a few weeks before the election the FBI released that they were investigating her emails and then her odds drifted a fair bit and continued in that direction.

Usually the money is pretty accurate.

 

[Justhereforthedrama]

when Hilary was in the lead, a short while before the election they launched the 'emails' scandal.

I am worried that they are going to do the same with Kamala, try and find something to turn into a scandal late on.

Did you guys see him swaying to music for 39 minutes at his rally? Its bizarre. Could he be setting himself up for being 'unfit to stand trial'?

 

[Amoo]

This is a very useful website for anyone who, like me, wants to better understand the Electoral College voting system, swing states etc and why it's going to be an extremely tight race.

270toWin - 2028 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2028 presidential election

www.270towin.com

 

[Goujon]

Kamala seemingly did a very strong interview on Fox. Hopefully it might sway a few undecideds.

Unfortunately in terms of polling , she has kind of flat lined. The other worrying statistic is that Biden on average was polling 4% above what he actually did.

If Kamala actually does 4% below her polling, it will be an easy win for trump.

 

[Yel]

Unless anything major happens in the next 17 days I think Trump has it in the bag.

He only just lost the swing states last time, and they could so easily flip back with the benefit of not being the incumbent.

 

[CrackingOwlSanctuary]

[
Iirc 2016 is the one and only year they got it wrong, but a few weeks before the election the FBI released that they were investigating her emails and then her odds drifted a fair bit and continued in that direction.

Usually the money is pretty accurate.

They also ducked the Brexit odds, 2016 was really a blip for the bookies.

 

[Ndrangheta]

You have to remember, the US is a child in the world. It's a toddler. It's an adolescent at best. This is the big test; are they mature enough a nation to reject facsim or are they still weak enough to accept it? Makes no difference to me, I've just been told my next dentist appointment is in 2027. The world might end before then.

 

[Amoo]

Could it be that the Republican plan is to install Trump by using his cult of celebrity to win the vote, then retire him and install Vance?

I think that is what could win it for Trump. Since RFK Jr is off the ballot, those who are really reluctant to support either Trump or Harris will go with Trump if they consider a future Vance presidency to be the least bad outcome.

 

[Ellelalala]

I think that is what could win it for Trump. Since RFK Jr is off the ballot, those who are really reluctant to support either Trump or Harris will go with Trump if they consider a future Vance presidency to be the least bad outcome.

I can assure you, for most voters, Vance is not a selling point.

 

[funkimunki1984]

I listen to Tim also. And Meidas Media.

Don't freak out. It'll be fine. I'm convinced Trump will lose is a massive way.

For me when Kansas blew-out their Republican over abortion tells the tale. Women will not vote for this rapist. Don't fret!

Keep calm and carry on! Big love and hugs to all american's reading this!

Oh Lordy Meidas media. I get this stuff sent all the time by my FIL. I live in Savannah and he LOVES the drama of it all. I’m British and he’s in the UK so is constantly sending me anything and everything.
I’m surprised by all the people supporting Trump. In Savannah I walked past a shop with a pink cancer awareness month themed window and they had t shirts which said “women for Trump”. Wtaf is wrong with them?!! All this actual tatt in the shop which people were buying. Trump gold trainers (vile), the stupid fight pose after he was shot on a t shirt, his bible, it was like a Trump pop up shop but it wasn’t.
And then there’s all the huge billboards! I haven’t seen one which says “vote Harris” but so many saying “vote Trump”
I don’t want this man to win, he’s a menace to women!
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You have to remember, the US is a child in the world. It's a toddler. It's an adolescent at best. This is the big test; are they mature enough a nation to reject facsim or are they still weak enough to accept it? Makes no difference to me, I've just been told my next dentist appointment is in 2027. The world might end before then.

I was speaking to my Italian neighbours about this. In comparison to Europe, the US is still a crèche. Trump is the bratty boy stomping his little feet cos the girls don’t like him so he’s going to make a boys club saying “no girls allowed!”
But you can’t say this in the US because you get told that we don’t understand in Europe and the UK because we don’t have freedoms, we don’t have guns, we don’t have a constitution etc. Whenever I’ve had a conversation with someone here it’s always come down to one of those points. Like arguing with the wind sometimes.

 

[Yel]

They also ducked the Brexit odds, 2016 was really a blip for the bookies.

Yep, I think it's partly due to how much quicker things move thesedays.

Overall odds have him way ahead, but there's still enough time for things to turn around.

Harris keeps dropping in the national polls and is nowhere near the 5 point lead that's needed to get the EC votes to win.

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But you can’t say this in the US because you get told that we don’t understand in Europe and the UK because we don’t have freedoms, we don’t have guns, we don’t have a constitution etc. Whenever I’ve had a conversation with someone here it’s always come down to one of those points. Like arguing with the wind sometimes.

I do think that very much depends on who and where you have these conversations. My last neighbors were all about the UK and France is a no go zone now, sharia law rules there, you get taxed 90% etc etc. They have never been to Europe and to start with I tried to explain (after living in both of those countries) but it was futile

 

[Ndrangheta]

The paid-for corporate media are desperate for Trump to win. So Harris has that going against her. Please don't look at the polls. I admit. I'm a bit worried. I was very confident that Trump will lose, now I'm a bit more cautious the nearer polling day comes. Not because of polls (I don't believe what they say for many reasons). I'm worried because this whole thing comes down to a few counties in Pa. and Wi.

We're seriously ducked if this deranged senile old facist rapist bleep wins. I mean, in reality it'll make little difference to my life, it's the young I worry for. Trump is essentially a trojan horse for authoritarianism. I personally believe he's being blackmailed by Putin, but that's a bit tin foil hat I admit and you don't have to believe that, you can make up your own mind. But he's certainly being manipulated due to his fecklessness, cognitive impairment, and low IQ. Trump has a lizard brain and that's dangerous and can be easily influenced. A bit like offering a dog a treat is the kindest way I can put it.

There is another part of me however, a more positive side, who believes Harris will win in a massive landslide. I think the black female vote will come out in force. I think the young female vote will come out in force. As usual, and I say this as a man, I think the female brain will save the day! Yes women can be annoying with their mood swings (joke) and constant nagging (joke) to put the bins out ... but my god do I love them. I was bloody born from one ffs! Come on girls, don't vote for orange Hitler.

ps. I hate having to put (joke) ... but everyone gets so offended these days with sarcastic humor!.

 

[Miss Begotten]

The paid-for corporate media are desperate for Trump to win. So Harris has that going against her. Please don't look at the polls. I admit. I'm a bit worried. I was very confident that Trump will lose, now I'm a bit more cautious the nearer polling day comes. Not because of polls (I don't believe what that say for many reasons). I'm worried because this whole thing comes down to a few counties in Pa. and Wi. We're seriously ducked if this deranged senile old facist rapist bleep wins. I mean, in reality it'll make little difference to my life, it's the young I worry for. Trump is essentially a trojan horse for authoritarianism. I personally believe he's being blackmailed by Putin, but that's a bit tin foil hat I admit and you don't have to believe that, you can make up your own mind. But he's certainly being manipulated due to his utterly fecklessness and low IQ. Trump has a lizard brain and that's dangerous.

There is another part of me however, a more positive side who believes Harris will win in a massive landslide. I think the black female vote will come out in force. I think the young female vote will come out in force. As usual, and I say this as a man, I think the female brain will save the day!

You’d better hope that’s the case because the figures showing the number of older white women who will be voting for a misogynistic rapist are frankly staggering.

 

[bluefoot]

You’d better hope that’s the case because the figures showing the number of older white women who will be voting for a misogynistic rapist are frankly staggering.

This doesn’t really surprise me. Misogyny is very strong in a lot of older women (esp. religious ones). Automatically disbelieving any and every woman who makes an allegation of abuse against a man.

 

[veronica71]

I think I want to live in my echo chamber where she wins by a landslide for the next 17 days.

I kinda get why he won before and why he’s been popular even though it’s so far removed from my politics and beliefs but he’s the guy he was a couple of years ago. He’s clearly losing the plot and makes no sense at all currently and no one mentions it - in fact it’s constantly said he’s a great communicator . And the fact he has done about fifty things that would make anyone else ineligible to stand is what I can’t get over.

saw an interesting tweet yesterday that was saying the level of young women turnout in early voting was way higher than previous and that yes Trump may be appealing to young men but they are the least likely to actually show up at the polls. If we get a first female president on the back of the anger of women who once again have been underestimated and not counted I will have a very large wry smile.

 

[Ndrangheta]

makes no sense at all currently and no one mentions it

The paid-for media are an absolute disgrace. It's a dereliction of duty for profit. It's disgusting. Same with that oddball Musk, a wannabe oligharch in the court of Trump. Donald cannot form coherent sentences, surely that's a massive bleeping red flag? It's madness. Another thing that drives me nuts is that none of the retired generals will come out and publically condemn Trump, even though they despise him. They have this weird notion that ex military types shouldn't get involved in politics. Again, it makes no bleeping sense.
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Good anti-Trump ad:

 

[Ndrangheta]

Another good one ...

 

[MissHavisham]

This doesn’t really surprise me. Misogyny is very strong in a lot of older women (esp. religious ones). Automatically disbelieving any and every woman who makes an allegation of abuse against a man.

The US religious right would be nowhere if it wasn't for women upholding the patriarchy and voting against their own interests. And it's not just older women either.

 

[MrsBsDayOff]

I don't like Trump or Harris, but I really hope Harris wins.

 

[Ndrangheta]

The US religious right would be nowhere if it wasn't for women upholding the patriarchy and voting against their own interests. And it's not just older women either.

What do you think the thinking behind that is? Brainwashing? Abuse? Two-sides of the same coin I suppose. Very sad.