Ukraine Russia War #15

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As in Putin wants the Donbas and won’t compromise 😂
Mainly because of the strategic master stroke of declaring those four administrative regions to be within Russia before they had been captured, now he's stuck in a stupid position of his own making where he has to accept some redrawn boundaries or another (at current rate of progress) 25? years of grind and steadily diminishing 'rewards for heroism' that were being given to widows of Russian soldiers which were already somewhat paltry, along with none of his people seeing much change of anything domestically except shortages and higher prices.

One explanation I read was that they all vote for him anyway because the one thing that Russians are absolutely best at, is hating Russians, second only to the philosophy that success as a nation is achieved not by making anything better but by making everybody else worse.
Also because he's protecting them from the vast hordes of invading nazis which surround Russia, 'nazis' still translating to 'anyone without a communist origin story' which I believe sufficiently covers China, North Korea and Russia itself.

This is an interesting writeup of how Russia's oligocracy works in relation to the war, the options of tea and/or fenestroika of course always remain available but to properly control you need to threaten their money too.
 
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Trump saying Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed. Bloke is on drugs isn't he? I'm genuinely curious if Trump is all there mentally at this point.
 
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Trump saying Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed. Bloke is on drugs isn't he? I'm genuinely curious if Trump is all there mentally at this point.
I can't see any way of interpreting anything Putin has ever said, even in the most obtuse way possible, that could possibly have given Trump that idea. Most likely Trump just made it up on the spot, wouldn't be the first time. The only grasp Trump has ever had on anything is an inappropriate one.
 
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This bit worth repeating because Putin really does do this
“Every time before Trump meets with Zelensky, Putin somehow manages to speak directly with Trump and during those conversations, distorts facts and manipulates him.”

Putin has Trump's number - literally and figuratively - and knows Trump will believe everything he says.
It will be interesting to see if he carries on like that even after the claims of drone strikes on Putin's palace turned out to be BS with even Trump reposting articles about it being BS or whether he just needs another phone call of reassurance that it was a terrible misunderstanding lost in translation and Putin is still totally trustworthy.

Bit of a turnaround for the so-called truth social
trump post 31/12/25
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Putin ‘attack’ bluster shows Russia is the one standing in the way of peace: nypost.com/2025/12/30/opinion/
trumptroof_20251231_1842est_ref_putin_attack_bluster.jpg


And the article linked isn't holding back talking about Putin

That said, I have a slight suspicion Trump didn't read anything beyond the headline - also interesting to see how the whole takeaway from the meeting has changed so much in the meantime - unless that is what 'cautiously optimistic' was paving the way for, to get us into a 'cautiously skeptical' frame of mind.
 
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Russia waves the Oreshnik hypersonics again (the line going all the way to Lviv) to demonstrate not just reach but also that they managed to get one working, while hammering Kyiv:

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And Trump did the 'Russia wants peace' thing again

And (ref same NYT piece)
❗"There were cases where I had Putin all done and Zelensky wouldn't make the deal, which shocked me. Then there were cases where it was the reverse. I think now they both want to make a deal, but we'll find out," Trump said.
showing the level of his delusion (or is it dishonesty) when it comes to dealing with Putin.
 
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TLDR : Trump will do anything except blame Putin whose fault it is and always has been.


and noted here, 'says Russia' of course being the key indicator
sky news liveblog 15 Jan 10:20 Trump is right - it's Zelenskyy holding up the peace deal, says Russia
Moscow has supported remarks made by Donald Trump overnight, when he pointed the finger at Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
In an interview with Reuters news agency, he was asked about Vladimir Putin - and he said: "I think he's ready to make a deal."
And he added: "I think Ukraine is less ready to make a deal."
Asked why he hasn't yet been able to resolve the conflict, Trump responded: "Zelenskyy."
Zelenskyy has agreed to every peace initiative that's been put forward, and Putin hasn't. Despite being terminally confused, Trump is well aware of this and knows exactly who is to blame but that doesn't fit the his vision of world real estate, the one where Putin gets Europe.
 
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This is of course bull because Russia has never been ready for peace

And we should take remarks like this about great financial and trade links

in the context of this (noting the hindsight here, nordstream/2 were massive gambles on trade/financial staving off aggression but turned out to reveal a misunderstanding of the cause of it i.e. Putin) a decision wherw wisdom was overshadowed by cost/convenience.

And for those who hate the bsky, here's one from TASS about the Trump regime enabling Russia's bypass of sanctions
US special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff described his talks with special presidential envoy and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev as "very positive."
...
Earlier, Dmitriev, Witkoff, and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner held talks at the US House in Davos. ... the meeting lasted more than two hours behind closed doors.
unless it was on behalf of Trump Inc and the 1.4 billion and counting that's apparently now resting their accounts.

But there is possibly some hope even if the US is treating it as a bit of an afterthought
TASS : US representatives plan to meet with Ukrainian delegation this evening

Though there's still the threat of Trump completing his mission to destroy/cripple NATO and Europe/EU cooperation by means of his public obsessing over Greenland

NYT guest writer : Europe Has a Bazooka. Time to Use It.
Jan. 21, 2026, 1:00 a.m. ET
By Henry J. Farrell
Dr. Farrell is a professor of democracy and international affairs at Johns Hopkins.

Ever since Donald Trump started talking about taking Greenland away from Denmark, European leaders have hoped that his notoriously short attention span would save them. Mr. Trump’s threat of tariffs against eight European countries may be dimming those hopes.
Ref'd by TASS under a headline of "Trump may rush to Armageddon, ending aid to Ukraine, over EU’s trade bazooka"
 
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Imminent Trump/Zelenskyy meeting, praying for something sane not another ambush... and apparently there's going to have a meeting with Putin, presumably he was talking about Witkoff grovelling on the Kremlin carpet again.
Not sure what's on offer but Ukraine's been willing to accept every suggestion put on the table and is not the one that needs convincing to end the war.

Apparently down to one issue, presumed to be territory - Russia wants bits that it hasn't occupied and Ukraine is understandably saying no and nobody should be asking them to hand those over.
 
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Russia attacks during peace talks bit of a clear message and yet 'both sides want peace'...

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sky news liveblog : Outrage and weariness in Kyiv as Russian drones and missiles rain down during peace talks
 
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Sorry if this has been mentioned in previous threads but there is a good documentary on iPlayer called ‘Mr Nobody Against Putin’.
It’s about a teacher, Pavel Talankin, who documents how his school in a small mining town in Russia is transformed into a recruitment centre for the ‘special military operation’ and how the school progressively becomes more militarised as ordered by the state. It’s also interesting how those who are pro Russia speak in an almost cult like manner.
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This teacher is a history teacher who Talakin says is brainwashed by Mother Russia. If he got the chance one of the people he’d most like to meet from history is Lavrentiy Beria - head of Stalin’s secret police, rapist and murderer.

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Feels like cold comfort for giving your life for one man’s ego.
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Utterly mad.
 
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As noted on the Trump thread, a somewhat extraordinary claim has been made and I'm in two minds about it being true, as it would be a good news bad news thing and a revelation that actually it could have been stopped in 24 hours with a phone call but Trump chose not to do so.

Waiting to see...


TASS however in their note on the event
somehow seems to have missed it - though this may be because if they mentioned it then Russia would have to admit that they were targeting civilians, instead of merely reporting 'explosions happened'.
 
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More on Trump's claim on that call to Putin, he definitely made or participated in a call but
sky news liveblog Energy ceasefire: Everything you need to know in 300 words
The Kremlin has said it agreed to halt strikes on Ukrainian cities until 1 February, confirming earlier reports that there might be an 'energy ceasefire'.
...
Where did the idea originate?
Donald Trump said yesterday that he had asked Vladimir Putin not to fire on Kyiv for a week due to cold weather and that the president had agreed.

The US first suggested a freeze on air attacks during last week's Abu Dhabi talks, says our military analyst, Michael Clarke.

Why is this necessary?
Ukraine's state weather agency yesterday forecast a drastic dip in temperatures to as low as -30C in coming days.

At the same time, thousands of people are without heating as Russia has stepped up targeted strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
So the moratorium wasn't just Trump calling Putin and persuading him - the groundwork had been done last week.


Kremlin has confirmed that there was a call and a personal request, that's no longer a matter for suspicion even if it is the Kremlin saying something - it is about Putin so they have to stick to direct facts
but we should not simply conclude a cause and effect.

The attacks continue, what's changed is the targeting not the intent - in any case the damage is already done and a freezing demoralised population serves Putin's aims just as well.

e2a : and moratorium seems to be real
but there's always a but, so we are still in the 'wait and see'...
 
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More on why Putin might have been interested in a bit of a moratorium
Murmansk in darkness with no water, power etc after everything just stopped working. Not bombing, just fell apart from no maintenance because all the money's gone to the war...
And then there's someone talking about the failed SMO in the Duma and ending his career with remarks about the ukrainian regime being non-nazi...

Massive queues for the buses in Moscow because there's a lot breaking there too.

A fair few things in this one including a rescue worker getting a couple of ladies out of danger areas and having to stop to shoot down a drone (one of many actively hunting people) with a shotgun...


Some better news for Ukraine, the power is apparently working again in all regions after the grid failure (caused by weather on a system under strain from damage) though there's still a lot of places where it's not fully restored and there are still blackout timetables in operation.
 
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That brief moratorium of strikes on energy/infrastructure that Trump said would be for a week but in reality was only ever scheduled to last for a couple of days, now definitely over, this is last night's attack :(

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Russia resumed bombing Kyiv four days after Trump's announced "ceasefire."
70+ missiles. 450 drones. -20°C in Kyiv, -25°C in Kharkiv.
Russian strikes set a kindergarten ablaze, damaged the WWII museum's Hall of Fame, and knocked out heating to 1,170 Kyiv buildings.

Stats via air forces telegram:
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translated summary https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mdwx3n2w7c2d
🇺🇦 Ukrainian Air Defence shot down:
4/4 “Zircon”/“Onyx” missiles;
11/32 Iskander-M/S-300 ballistic missiles;
3/7 Kh-22/Kh-32 cruise missiles;
20/28 cruise missiles “X-101/Iskander-K”;
412/450 attack UAVs

But yeah, 'Russia wants peace'...
 
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Attacks over the last few days, early in the war 100+ would have been counted as big, but now that everything has been ramped up, and the attacks on energy infrastructure have resumed
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This one including the radar tracking of the mass of drones as they were in the air

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