Ukraine Russia War #15

[Doctor_Wibble]

Following Russia's attack wave the night before last:

Ukraine rescuers pull dead from rubble after Russian strikes kill 22

An eight-year-old boy killed in a strike on an apartment block are among the dead, officials say.

www.bbc.co.uk

and in a context of increasing disquiet

Putin remains uncompromising on Ukraine, but is public discourse on war changing in Russia?

Russia is intensifying attacks in Ukraine but more than four years of war are causing concern even among Putin loyalists.

www.bbc.co.uk

Visitors to Putin's SPIEF2026 Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum get some extra special panoramic views

Ukraine strikes St Petersburg oil terminal as city prepares to host 'Russian Davos'

Some 20,000 guests from 130 countries are set to attend the three-day annual St Petersburg International Economic Forum.

www.thejournal.ie

and barely a drone's throw from the terminal

Ukrainian Drones Strike Russian Warships at Kronstadt Naval Base Near St. Petersburg

Ukraine struck the Russian corvette Boiky and infrastructure at the Kronstadt naval base, a key Baltic Fleet hub over 1,100 km from Ukraine.

united24media.com

And reports from Crimea are showing petrol stations running out of almost everything, and with massive queues because land supply routes through occupied territory are increasingly risky for transport and the Kerch bridge is still under heavy restrictions. Visitors to Crimea are being advised to take an extra can of petrol with them to make sure they can get home.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Some diplomacy going on, albeit 'somewhat nuanced'

Zelensky proposes face-to-face talks in open letter to Putin

Ukraine's president tells the Russian leader that only "direct engagement" between the two countries could end the war, with the US focused on Iran.

www.bbc.co.uk

The letter
Open Letter to the President of the Russian Federation from the President of Ukraine
With a distinctively non-pleading tone and the timing is certainly not coincidental.

Putin's remarks as noted in the bbc article, seemingly without having seen the letter or at least not officially.

Meeting with heads of international news agencies

Vladimir Putin’s meeting with heads of the world’s leading news agencies took place in the Constantine Palace.

en.kremlin.ru

... I would like to add the following: Without doubt, we are ready and willing to reach an agreement with Ukraine by peaceful means – and based on what we have discussed at the meeting with President Trump in Anchorage. At that meeting, certain questions were put before Russia so that we could agree on certain compromises. Russia agrees to the compromises discussed in Anchorage. It is necessary that Ukraine also agrees to make them. Then, the conflict will be resolved naturally and quickly.

Though I'd have to go back and check what was announced after that because off the top of my head I don't recall anything of any substance happening, other than sight of Putin's barely concealed smugness and a confirmation that Russia's demands hadn't changed.

And this from this morning.
Russia ready to resolve Ukraine issue based on agreements reached in Alaska — MFA

"We are ready to use political and diplomatic means to achieve these objectives based on the agreements reached in Anchorage. However, if this does not work out and our US colleagues, so to speak, scale back their efforts to encourage the Kiev regime to accept the Anchorage agreements, we will still continue our special military operation in line with the goals set out by the Russian president,"

No nuance, just boilerplate. Putin unlikely to add anything new about this in his speech at the SPIEF later and even if there's a Q&A and someone forgets they aren't supposed to ask about it, the response is unlikely to be anything other than a re-worded repeat.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

The 'Ukraine biolabs' thing has come back again...

Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social)

Russia's top agent in the White House played her err.. trump card before being fired/leaving voluntarily Tulsi Gabbard "declassified" details of US 'bio-labs' in Ukraine, just as Russia alleged. Except the research labs were not secret. This from 2015 theins.press/en/inv/281731...

bsky.app

The 'already known' remark refers to this

Hidden Bear: The GRU hackers of Russia’s most notorious kill squad

Russian GRU Unit 29155 is best known for its long list of murder and sabotage ops, which include the Salisbury poisonings in England, arms depot explosions in…

theins.press

One quick STFW later
Tulsi Gabbard Reveals Declassified Map, Records of Ukraine Bio Labs
The map I'd swear I've seen before -years ago and only in black&white, maybe the 'declassified' adds colour...?
And going by what she said, it's not much of a stretch to suggest she didn't bother to consult anyone with any sort of relevant knowledge in the subject.

About a month ago she launched an investigation into all of them
Tulsi Gabbard launches investigation on 120 US-funded biolabs - dozens located in Ukraine

Not a new discovery for her - March 2022 Tulsi Gabbard Latest To Push Russian-Backed Conspiracy About U.S.-Backed Biological Labs In Ukraine

Not sure if this is also an application to move straight to the chat circuit, but at the very least (and I think this is the intent) it's putting some extra negative scoring against Ukraine out there for the public and for Trump, just as he's losing interest in Iran and people might start asking about Ukraine again.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

The 'Ukraine biolabs' thing has come back again...

Someone with a decent knowledgeable background and patience took a proper look through it and confirmed everybody's suspicions

(((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social)

I read the ODNI report regarding the so-called Ukrainian biolabs, and it is almost entirely a rehash of publicly available information. The new data, which btw. also contains inaccurate maps of Ukraine, supplements publicly available data. There is not a single bombshell in it. (1/11)

bsky.app

i.e. no surprise that there are no surprises.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

That one about 'I see no ships'... following the interception of the sanctioned russian ship, a whole bunch of others due to be traipsing through the channel decided that perhaps they fancied the scenic route after all

auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social)

About 8 hours after shadow tanker SMYRTOS was seized by UK three other shadow tankers made abrupt turns within an hour of each other, avoiding going through the English Channel. Home base called I assume. All ships in screenshots are sanctioned.

bsky.app

In the meantime, petrol station queues are getting bigger and more common - Crimea already on the verge of running out...

Prune60 (@prune602.bsky.social)

‼️ Russia: “Restrictions on gasoline sales have begun to be introduced in the Kemerovo and Nizhny Novgorod regions.” 🍿 https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/14/vkemerovskoi-inizhegorodskoi-oblastyah-nachali-vvodit-ogranicheniya-naprodazhu-benzina-a198105

bsky.app

[ post includes translated screengrab of article top ]
In the Kemerovo and Nizhny Novgorod regions began to impose restrictions on the sale of gasoline

More and more Russian regions are facing a shortage of fuel. Following Tatarstan and Ulyanovsk region, the limits on the purchase of gasoline appeared at the gas stations of Kuzbass, reports NGS42. So, announcements of restrictions were noticed on the network of filling stations "Forus". The text says that one driver can purchase no more than 20 liters of gasoline. The measures are explained by the “difficult market situation”. How long they will act is not specified.

In total, about 30 regions of Russia collided with a shortage or interruption in the supply of fuel, excluding the occupied territories of Ukraine. Among them are Moscow and the Moscow region, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar, Krasnoyarsk and Khabarovsk territories, Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Novgorod, Murmansk, Orel, Pskov, Ryazan, Rostov and Tomsk regions, Buryatia.

And no end of clips of queues at petrol stations, plenty of pictures of petrol pumps with '95 nyet' signs taped on them or for these that haven't run out, '20 litres max'.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Another big attack overnight

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social)

🤬 Uspensky Cathedral of Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra is on fire. ❗️❗️Up to 30 missiles were fired at Kyiv in an hour

bsky.app

air defence report post on telegram 06:10

The main direction of the strike is Kyiv. Dnipro and Kharkiv were also attacked by missiles.
In total, the radio and technical troops of the Air Force recorded 681 means of air attack – 70 missiles and 611 UAVs of various types

🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@militarynewsua.bsky.social)

❗️Overnight, Ukrainian forces shot down 632 aerial targets: 50/70 missiles and 582/611 enemy UAVs. Shot down / Launched: ▪️ 5/6 anti-ship missiles 3M22 Zircon; ▪️ 15/34 ballistic missiles Iskander-M / S-400; ▪️ 30/30 cruise missiles Kh-101 / Iskander-K;

bsky.app

 

[Bobby Chariot]

Largest drone attack in 2 years hits Moscow

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/18/europe/ukraine-strikes-moscow-oil-refinery-intl-hnk

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Largest drone attack in 2 years hits Moscow

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/18/europe/ukraine-strikes-moscow-oil-refinery-intl-hnk

Moscow refinery has been suffering a bit recently, to the extent that even Muscovite influencers are doing clips lamenting the lack of 100-octane petrol and - not being Russian I can't tell - either genuinely not the slightest clue as to why, or using that as a way of saying they know exactly why but don't dare say.

The helpful refineries chart has been updated

[ ref full chart posted here ]

There seem to be two or even three overlapping fuel crises in Russia and Russian occupied areas - the shortage in Crimea has continued to get worse, strikes further back on logistics destined for occupied regions are having the desired effect, and the damage to refineries is doing the rest such that there's widespread rationing, export bans, flight cancellations on top of the delays caused by drone alerts...

FT : Ukrainian drone campaign chokes Moscow’s lifeline to Crimea

Life in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Russia annexed, has narrowed to fuel. Residents spend hours queueing at petrol stations, often reaching the front only to find supplies have run out.
Local chat groups are filled with survival tips: “set up an alarm for 10pm” to secure an electronic voucher, or skip work to join the queue earlier — rituals many refer to as “hunger games”.

[ if link doesn't work, it does from here, actually from the 15th but situation unchanged or more likely, worse ]
Complete with requisite clips of massive queues though disappointingly no pictures of pumps with signs saying 'nyet'.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Largest drone attack in 2 years hits Moscow

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/18/europe/ukraine-strikes-moscow-oil-refinery-intl-hnk

The clip at the top of that didn't play for me first time around - since then after seeing a load of pics/memes of the top of an oil tank flying through the air which I thought was just people pissing about, I looked again and now change my 'like' to a 'holy tit'...

For anyone having the same trouble (though I think it's just me and my nonstandard setup wot dun it)

Spoiler: screengrab and a different angle

From the clip in the article

Second clip - from a different angle and much closer

Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social)

bsky.app

The lid being the dark round thing on the left of the column of smoke...

 

[Bobby Chariot]

The clip at the top of that didn't play for me first time around - since then after seeing a load of pics/memes of the top of an oil tank flying through the air which I thought was just people pissing about, I looked again and now change my 'like' to a 'holy tit'...

For anyone having the same trouble (though I think it's just me and my nonstandard setup wot dun it)

Spoiler: screengrab and a different angle

From the clip in the article
View attachment 4027271

Second clip - from a different angle and much closer

Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social)

bsky.app

View attachment 4027272
The lid being the dark round thing on the left of the column of smoke...

The UK are manufacturing 150,000 drones for shipment to Ukraine by the end of this year.
Just think of the potential

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

The UK are manufacturing 150,000 drones for shipment to Ukraine by the end of this year.
Just think of the potential

Actually they might not need them if this footage is anything to go by




And a longer version with an explanation of where it came from

🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@militarynewsua.bsky.social)

❗️Chinese tourists published a video showing a surface-to-air missile (or MANPADS rocket) striking a storage tank on the grounds of the Moscow Oil Refinery during the morning Ukrainian drone attack.

bsky.app

So I should apologise for being rude about the Russian air defences, that was an absolutely beautiful shot.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Moscow Refinery update... TBC because 'sources' but specialised refinery gear is not replaced in a day.
Moscow oil refinery hit by drone attacks is unlikely to resume production this year, sources say

And the ISW's latest included a map of the Russia-wide fuel shortages cause by the Ukrainian long range sanctions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2026

President Putin and senior Kremlin officials are reiterating Russia's commitment to its original war aims of complete Ukrainian capitulation.

understandingwar.org

And there's lots of complaining by people who somehow have not yet connected the dots as to why it's all happening.

Top team Kushner and Witkoff due to visit again soon, expecting another progress of zero.

Witkoff, Kushner’s visit being discussed, Russia would 'lend them an ear' — Lavrov

The Russian foreign minister noted that Russia is always open to talks

tass.com

 

[Bobby Chariot]

Listening to a report on the radio this morning, the average life expectancy for a Russian army recruit is 10-21 days from camp to battlefield.
When at the frontline it's 25-40 minutes
7-8,000 Russian dead per week.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Listening to a report on the radio this morning, the average life expectancy for a Russian army recruit is 10-21 days from camp to battlefield.
When at the frontline it's 25-40 minutes
7-8,000 Russian dead per week.

And yet seemingly barely a whisper of complaint. But having to queue for petrol, this is when they start wondering if the whole 'special military operation' is actually worth it.

Perhaps more indicative of the proportion of people prepared to speak up, but to have taken so long... but if that threshold is now crossed then there's hope for at least some form of cessation, though Russian withdrawal I think isn't going to happen until after Putin is dead.

 

[Bobby Chariot]

And yet seemingly barely a whisper of complaint. But having to queue for petrol, this is when they start wondering if the whole 'special military operation' is actually worth it.

Perhaps more indicative of the proportion of people prepared to speak up, but to have taken so long... but if that threshold is now crossed then there's hope for at least some form of cessation, though Russian withdrawal I think isn't going to happen until after Putin is dead.

The lifespan estimates came from Russian military bloggers/analysts.
Putin's too busy making videos about the best pickling of cabbage techniques.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Yesterday's update from the ISW noting Russia flailing somewhat and the higher casualties noted above

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2026

Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has failed to achieve operationally significant gains thus far, per ISW.

understandingwar.org

The usual Kremlin balls about last night's attacks including the stuff about Zelenskyy and elections but those are prevented by the war, so if Russia wants to see elections happen in Ukraine then they should duck off home so that they can take place.

Kremlin briefing covers Russia's massive strike on Ukraine, EU's confrontation with Moscow

The European Union's escalation toward Russia further intensifies already heightened tensions across Europe, Dmitry Peskov said

tass.com

The reality is they don't care who dies for Putin's stupid vanity, unfortunately that's a thing that won't end until he does.

'Most massive' Russian attack on Kyiv kills at least 30

The latest barrage deployed the largest number of weapons on the capital and hit locations over a wide area.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Fuel crisis spreads, "Queues to Russian gas stations became visible from space"

Очереди к российским заправкам стали видны из космоса - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Многокилометровая очередь к автозаправочной станции в Забайкальском крае попала на спутниковый снимок Airbus, сделанный утром 3 июля, сообщил эксперт BBC Verify по спутниковым данным Пол Браун.

ru.themoscowtimes.com

The image, according to his analysis, shows a string of cars at the refueling of Rosneft in the village of Atamanovka near Chita. A day earlier, a video of this queue appeared on the Internet, shot on July 2, - its length was about 4.5 kilometers. According to Meduza, the number of cars standing in line can reach 800.

And people trying to leave Crimea having massive queues to get on to the bridge and even that's after having to pay upwards of 2-2.50 a litre

NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com)

Satellite imagery shows a 7.5 km vehicle queue stretching to the inspection and screening complex near the Crimean Bridge. The congestion was visible on approaches to the checkpoint handling traffic before the bridge crossing. #Crimea

bsky.app

And in Russia they are also having the effects of a 'special fuel confusion operation' where not everybody reporting fuel status of stations is necessarily doing it for the benefit of all...

Sven-Erik Volberg (@volberg.bsky.social)

Fuel map is getting redder and redder. P.S it's my understanding that a more than a few #NAFO guys are in the system. Clicking green stations to red and red ones to green. Special fuel confusion operation if you will 😉

bsky.app

[ Link includes fuel station map of this end of Russia, plus Crimea ]

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Noted on the US Politics, different bits to highlight
Kremlin : Commentary by Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov following Vladimir Putin’s telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump July 4, 2026 23:55

The US President reaffirmed his readiness to facilitate an early termination of the hostilities and the search for peaceful solutions to the crisis. His special envoys – Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – will carry on their mediation efforts and are ready to come to Moscow at our convenience.

So right now doing nothing? Presumably busy sorting the percentages to skim off anything Iran related.

The Russian President reaffirmed our commitment to a political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict, with due consideration for Russia’s known principled approaches.

Not sure what those are, unless it's the good old 'goals of the SMO' i.e. surrender, handing over territory, installing Putin stooge.

Our President has outlined the real situation on the battlefield, where the Russian Armed Forces are confidently advancing, liberating one settlement after another.

The 'confident advance' is slower than a heavily laden snail and the latest claimed capture is disputed to the point where Zelenskyy has said great if you captured it then let's meet there and yet somehow Putin doesn't want to do that.

Noted here

Trump holds 90-minute call with Putin, also speaks with Zelenskyy ahead of NATO summit

President Donald Trump offered to help find a solution ⁠to the Ukraine war, Kremlin officials say, after multiple past attempts to end the conflict failed to bring about an agreement.

www.nbcnews.com

and includes reporting of the conversation with Zelenskyy,

Zelenskyy, writing on his Telegram account, described his conversation with the U.S. president as “very good,” including a discussion on the ‌war’s 746-mile front line.
“There is a real prospect to end this war ‌and American resolve will have a crucial meaning,” he said. Zelenskyy said he and Trump agreed to continue discussions at the NATO meeting.

not sure which was first but as it sounds like it wasn't a disaster I'll guess that the call to (not from) Putin was the later of the two.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Russia ramping up efforts on ballistic missiles in light of diminishing stocks of the Patriot PAC-3 interceptors

The most in any month this year: Russia fired 126 ballistic missiles at Ukraine in July - Euromaidan Press

The most in any month this year

euromaidanpress.com

Missiles including more supplied by North Korea, and a lot of repurposed large air defence missiles.

And the promises made about letting Ukraine make their own PAC-3 - turned out to be something he had no power over because it's subject to export controls, patents held by the manufacturer, and I dread to think of the poor sap who had to tell Trump that actually it was something he wasn't allowed to just do...

🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@militarynewsua.bsky.social)

❗️US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated that the agreement on the joint production of Patriot missiles for Ukraine will not be concluded before winter.

bsky.app

And first production would be some time after that anyway.
Unfortunately fixing the cause of the shortage is unlikely to release any spares because there's no knowing when Trump will order another attack on Iran and duck everything up again.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Russia's bombardment continues, with an increased proportion of ballistic missiles thanks to supplies from North Korea

Russian strike kills 21 as Ukraine calls for interceptors

The Russia defence ministry said it had struck logistics hubs and supply centres in Kyiv and the surrounding region.

www.bbc.co.uk

because the defence against those has pretty much run out

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social)

🇺🇸❗️🇺🇦 Trump rejected Zelenskyy's request to supply Ukraine with hundreds of Patriot missiles, - FT Sources reported that Trump cited the US's limited stockpile of these missiles for his decision, arguing that they were necessary to protect American facilities in the Middle East…

bsky.app

Shortage of interceptors being one of many disasatrous consequences of Trump's refusal in 2018 to touch anything that didn't have his name all over it (instead preferring the big-man theatrics) or even worse, having to share credit with someone else and then to cap it all, that particular someone else was Obama...