Ukraine Russia War #15

[Doctor_Wibble]

After a relative lull of merely(!) a hundred or so every night.

Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social)

Three ballistic missiles hit Ukraine during the night/morning and Russia also fired 324 long-range drones. 309 of the UAVs were shot down, with 2 still flying at the time of publication, giving an ultra high success rate of 96% 9 places suffered hits. #StopRussia

bsky.app

And on my combined dislike of coincidences and tendency to over-link things:

The Ukrainian Review (@theukrainianreview.bsky.social)

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Donald Trump reiterated that a resolution to Russia’s war in Ukraine is "on the way." "I've resolved eight wars, and a ninth is on the way," the US President emphasized.

bsky.app

Right after Putin's loss of a disruptive stooge within the EU and NATO


Latest ISW report

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2026

Russia is centralizing drone procurement for its Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), which will have both positive and negative consequences.

understandingwar.org

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Another massive attack wave

Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social)

So far, FIVE civilians are known to have been murdered by Russia, which fired almost 50 missiles at Ukraine and hundreds of Shahed drones. Three of those killed are in Dnipro which was most heavily attacked. A 3rd body has just been pulled from the rubble, but there may be more

bsky.app

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social)

🇺🇦 Ukrainian Air Defence shot down: ▪️?/12 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles; ▪️26/29 Kh-101 cruise missiles; ▪️?/1 Iskander-K cruise missile; ▪️4/5 Kalibr cruise missiles; ▪️580/619 drones

bsky.app

Savchenko Volodymyr (@savchenkoua.bsky.social)

‼️ The main direction of the enemy's night attack is Dnipro. In addition, Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv region, Shostka in the Sumy region and Reni in the Odesa region were under fire.

bsky.app

Noting that no ballistic missiles were intercepted - showing the main problem of something like the Patriot system, the limitations of area coverage (never mind the indane cost).

And the top US negotiating team is on the case... of the stupid WTF-is-your-malfunction war with Iran.

 

[Bobby Chariot]

Slava Ukraini !

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Putin wants to declare a ceasefire for the 9th May, presumably because he doesn't want anyone raining on his parade... which apparently isn't going to include any armour or perhaps even any mechanised/wheeled stuff?

darth putin

AFAICT Ukraine as per usual left out of the loop

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social)

🇺🇦🇺🇸 Zelensky: I have instructed our representatives to contact the team of the President of the US and find out the details of the Russian proposal for a short-term silence. Ukraine seeks peace and is providing the necessary diplomatic work for a real end to this war.

bsky.app

OTOH Ukraine has been doing their Just Stop Oil thing and better than Just Stop Oil ever did (OK so there's a teensy bit of a CO2 release but they are trying to make sure it's the last one), I believe Tuapse may still be burning...

Oil sanctions that bite, and which unlike the US ones don't get lifted after a cosy call from Putin

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Russia now spreading its shahed strikes across the daytime as well now, seems to be averaging around 400-600 across 24h.

Russia still struggling to advance at even a snail's pace

Russia Loses Ground for First Time Since 2024 as Advance Slows Sharply — ISW

ISW estimates Russian troops lost control of 116 square kilometers during the month, even as fighting remained intense. The setback marks a shift after months of incremental, but steady, gains.

www.kyivpost.com

Though thanks to some twit's latest distraction over in the middle east, everybody's deliveries are getting de-prioritised without them being consulted (warning that it's imminent is a far cry from negotiating a changed schedule), regardless of whether they put up shitloads of money up front.

Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social)

The United States has warned European allies, including the United Kingdom, Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia, of potential long-term delays in weapons deliveries, including those used by Ukraine to defend against Russia.

bsky.app

OTOH some rain expected for Putin's parade

Ukrainian drone hits upmarket Moscow high-rise ahead of Victory Day celebrations

Russia has declared a unilateral ceasefire to cover the event and threatened a massive strike on central Kyiv if it were disrupted.

www.bbc.co.uk

The parade is due to be massively scaled down as it is, even the most loyal party faithful will be putting 2 and 2 together and not getting the officially designated '5'.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Russia doing what Russia does

Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social)

In Sumy death toll rises to two following Russian strike on kindergarten. Rescue workers have recovered another body from the rubble. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

bsky.app

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

And after Putin says please can we have a ceasefire for our 9th May parades, Ukraine says you ignored our request for a ceasefire so that's a no.

And in light of the Ukrainians proving their drones can still reach Moscow there's air defences being pulled from everywhere and parades cancelled in other cities...

SAINT JAVELIN (@saintjavelin.bsky.social)

🤭Victory Day parades on May 9 have been canceled in 15 regions across Russia.

bsky.app

(guessing the weird text size inconsistency is the translate-o-matic)

 

[Dooley Doo]

Russia doing what Russia does

Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social)

In Sumy death toll rises to two following Russian strike on kindergarten. Rescue workers have recovered another body from the rubble. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

bsky.app

I wonder if this is the same kindergarten that was hit before the lining up of Russian tanks on the Belarus and Ukraine border that were supposed to be military exercises.

There was injuries at the kindergarten back then but no deaths.

If I remember right Ukraine was told to show restraint on both occasions and then Russia crossed into Ukraine from Belarus.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Russian Refineries update, Ukrainian visitors being something of an economic boom

Kostiantyn Hoholenko (@hoholenko.bsky.social)

🎯🎯 жирненькі

bsky.app

And the Kremlin is getting nervous about the big parade, no foreign media and apparently it's going to be on a several-second delay (maybe they don't trust the foreign media to go along with that) either to enable cutting transmission if something happens, or to enable some fancy CGI to add in loads of cheering spectators etc as needed

SPRAVDI - Stratcom Centre (@stratcomcentre.bsky.social)

The Kremlin has revoked accreditation of foreign journalists for Moscow's May 9 parade after having already received it. Der Spiegel, ARD, ZDF, Sky, Rai, NHK, and AFP have been banned after previously receiving approval.

bsky.app

Or they are nervous about actual drones turning up, though I doubt Ukraine would be attacking such an event, more likely sending a load of blue/yellow painted ones blaring out the Ukrainian national anthem.


In the meantime, one of Russia's air traffic control centres seems to be having some sort of hiccup

Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social)

Russian air travel is in chaos again this morning - Russia claims its Air Traffic Management (ATM) centre was hit by Ukraine. Various airports across the south of the country are closed and the Transport Ministry published these statements (translated)

bsky.app

That's in addition to the frequent (at least daily?) interruptions of flights around Moscow.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Zelenskyy officially permits Moscow parade to go ahead

Україна офіційно дозволила провести у москві парад 9 травня. Зеленський підписав указ

УНН Війна в Україні ✎ Указ №374/2026 дозволяє парад у москві 9 травня 2026 року. Красну площу тимчасово виключили з плану вогневого ураження ЗСУ.

unn.ua

translate-o-matic with fixes and sanity adjustment:

Ukraine officially allowed a parade to be held in Moscow on May 9. Zelensky signed a decree

Kyiv • UNN

8 May 2026, 19:47 • 152 views

Decree No. 374/2026 allows parade in Moscow on May 9, 2026. The red square was temporarily excluded from the plan of fire damage by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
...
" Taking into account the numerous requests, with humanitarian purposes, outlined in negotiations with the American side on May 8, 2026, I decree: to allow on May 9, 2026 a parade in Moscow (Russian Federation) "
- from text of Decree No. 374/2026.

Will need to see if it was because of or caused this or possibly even part of something actually agreed, Putin must have made a special request to Trump who woke up long enough to ask his top negotiating team if they had forgotten this was still going on...

posted here

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Looks like (to nobody's surprise) Russia used the ceasefire to build up stocks of shaheds which it's been launching since last night and is still continuing

🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social)

Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 710 out of 753 Russian drones during one of the largest drone attacks of the war. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia launched a total of 892 Shahed-type strike drones, decoys, and imitation UAVs over a 24-hour period, including jet-powered.

bsky.app

Flight paths along the borders (notably Belarus), attacking targets well over in the west of Ukraine.

From about 4 hours ago

Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social)

Current Shahed situation in Ukraine The death toll rose to 3 in Rivne, the local administration says. Several Shaheds attacked the westernmost Zakarpattia Oblast. 📷 PPO Radar

bsky.app

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

The barrage continues, and at the same extreme level

Summary translation of the morning air defence report 14/5/26

Ukrainian Air Defence shot down: ?/3 Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles; 12/18 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles; 29/35 Kh-101 cruise missiles; 652/675 strike UAVs. 15 missile hits and 23 strike UAVs were recorded at 24 locations, as well as the fall of fragments UAVs at 18 locations.

And the main attack paths and targets overnight

Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social)

Emergency services in Kyiv say 10 people have already been rescued from the multi-storey building destroyed in the city. Here, they update all the known damage in the capital.

bsky.app

Translated update.

 

[monga]

No change there then

 

[Dooley Doo]

No change there then

Rich coming from the man that started a war to carry out 120 trades a day in the March quarter this year to make 1 billion shares, and try and get the world to buy US oil and fuel products.

Oz has bought a few shipments from the US.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Rich coming from the man that started a war to carry out 120 trades a day in the March quarter this year to make 1 billion shares, and try and get the world to buy US oil and fuel products.

Oz has bought a few shipments from the US.

Indeed, responsibility lies with that orange degenerate in the whitehouse whose actions maintain his title of Agent Krasnov.

The details of the change (because the source is a pro-Kremlin Z quoting a Russian news agency so that's a fact check and a de-spin required)

General Trade Licence for sanctioned processed oil products

The General Trade Licence for sanctioned processed oil products permits certain activities prohibited under the Russia (Sanctions) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019.

www.gov.uk

The General Trade Licence for sanctioned processed oil products permits the import into the UK of the following prohibited goods processed in third countries from Russian crude oil:
- diesel (HS 2710 19 42 or HS 2710 19 44)
- jet fuel (HS 2710 19 21)

And something of an over-emphasis on the 'indefinitely' which is necessary due to uncertainties over Trump's global supply chain fuckup which in particular has caused shortages of diesel and jet fuel. i.e. Trump helps Kremlin. Again.

 

[Bobby Chariot]

On the frontline with Ukraine Special Forces using a Drone, a Laptop & an ancient British howitzer.

 

[Merpedy]

Anyone seen the mess going down with the Baltic states because of Ukrainian drones going stray due to electric interference (which I assume acts as a defence) from Russia?

Ive seen a number of politicians then tweeting blaming Russia for provocation/interference when its Ukrainian drones straying all around the place. Ultimately understand it’s all a war of PR but still wild to read

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Anyone seen the mess going down with the Baltic states because of Ukrainian drones going stray due to electric interference (which I assume acts as a defence) from Russia?

The interference might have been one of a few things - direct jamming, or something GPS related, either jamming or spoofing, the drones often seemingly a really long way off course when checked against targets known to have been hit, which led to questions about whether their origin had been confirmed though I would think that most would not be russian rebadgings/relaunchings, the whole lot being unfortunate fallout.

Hopefully they can adjust their choice of targets to keep these things far enough away to prevent this happening again but the Russian Baltic ports are too important not to have in the sights.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine leaves four dead and dozens injured

Four people were killed and more than 50 others injured in Kyiv and its surrounding areas, with explosions heard across the region overnight into Sunday, and reports of damage to residential buildings and schools.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Oreshnik hypersonic missile was used in a strike on Bila Tserkva, a city within the Kyiv region.

The single orange line (category 'ballistic') coming from the right AFAICT is the oreshnik strike.

Footage of the Oreshnik strike is odd, looks like the individual warheads are solid lumps, and falling oddly rather than straight at full speed.

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social)

🤬 More footage of Oreshnik missile strike on Bila Tserkva. The Russians themselves are unhappy. Voenkors consider the strike with a simple "iron" a sign of weakness.

bsky.app

And safety is unfortunately often somewhat relative

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social)

❗️The ceiling in the Lukyanivska metro station began to collapse from the shock wave: people have nowhere to breathe And Fires in Kyiv ⚠️

bsky.app

And an interesting remark as to the cost

SPRAVDI - Stratcom Centre (@stratcomcentre.bsky.social)

While whole regions of Russia face looming bankruptcy, Moscow spent an estimated $1.2 billion in last night's 5-hour missile attack on Kyiv's civilian population.

bsky.app

And a good brief summarised piece here Ukrainian Review : Russia Launches One of the Most Massive Combined Air Attacks Against Ukraine

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Some better news

Institute for the Study of War (@thestudyofwar.bsky.social)

NEW: Ukraine is actively challenging the positional character of the war that has dominated the battlefield since 2023. Russian gains are approaching net zero while Ukrainian forces are setting conditions potentially to break out of positional warfare. (1/5) Read more...

bsky.app

Ukraine has re-secured an overall drone advantage and fielded systems capable of disrupting Russian forces throughout their operational depth in support of planned Ukrainian offensive or defensive ground operations.