Ukraine Russia War #12

[Yel]

It's alway the shitty phones behind him that get me.

Were they once white? Did he get them from a library that closed in the 80s? Has he saved any numbers to the 20 that can be stored in the phones memory ( the labels look blank, but there maybe numbers saved but for security reasons he hasn't penned on anything)? So many questions!

 

[Septemberthesecond]

I'm an English teacher living in Moscow (its been my home for the past 9 years) and I don't really have anywhere else to go. The mood has really changed here now- I got caught up in a protest as I was waiting for my partner to leave the metro station and saw many brave guys getting aggressively taken by riot police. Everyone I know is against what is happening. It's so sad, so many of my friends are really decent, educated people who are facing the looming prospect of being trapped in this country and sent to fight.

 

[NeverEnough]

On bbc news that Biden saying highest risk of nuclear war since Cuban missile crisis. It’s got me all panicked again. I just don’t see what way it’s going to end as putin is backed into a corner. Anyone with more idea of this whole thing have ideas?

As I understand it the nukes that Putin is talking about will be of the small scale tactical variety, a bit like Hiroshima, it will cause complete devastation in the immediate vicinity, however will not produce the radiation of fall out to threaten the UK.

But even if he was to use one of these there simply has to be a response. I suspect what Biden and NATO will do is respond initially with conventional forces, for which the war has shown the Russians are no match. Every Russian soldier in the Ukraine will have a life expectancy measurable in days, the Black Sea fleet will end up at the bottom of the sea, and I suspect that the Russian oil and gas fields, on which their economy is more or less completely dependant, will end up as a series of spectacular bonfires which will take years to control. So even if he uses a nuke it isn’t necessarily the end of all things. Hiroshima didn’t end human life. Neither did Chernobyl. But it will perhaps put into perspective that whatever Molly Mae is wearing today perhaps isn’t that important?

 

[Sglodion]

It's a clever intimidation tactic, the idea of making parts of Ukraine 'officially' Russian and then claiming NATO would be threatening Russia directly by attacking them, but I don't see any reason why they'd go through with turning this into a real boots-on-the-ground conflict with the West. If they state outright that they're at war with NATO then there's no further reason for us to stop short of sending in our own troops, seeing as the whole reason we're not doing so at the moment is to avoid turning this into a wider war with Russia, and given that they're already struggling against the Ukrainian army alone there's no reason for them to want that.

As for all this talk of the West 'provoking' the apocalypse or whatever, it doesn't matter what Russian military law says about which weapons are allowed to be used when and whatnot. If they were going to launch a nuclear first strike against a NATO country, apart from it being an obvious suicide mission, the whole concept of rules would be off the table - at that point no-one's going to give a shit about who started it or whether it was technically allowed within the Russian legal framework. Bluntly, if they really wanted to kick off a global nuclear war for no reason except that they started a pointless conflict in Ukraine and now they're embarrassed, they could just do it, no need to come up with a BS cover story involving a fake referendum and how it's really us who are the aggressors here etc. The point of this rhetoric is to 1) rattle the domestic audience so they're convinced this extra troop mobilisation is necessary (it's totes because NATO are an eeeevil scary nuclear power out to destroy Russia and we have to defend ourselves, not that our 'special military operation' is going a bit shit and needs cannon fodder for reinforcement) and 2) hopefully rattle the Western public enough that general sentiment will turn against supplying military aid to Ukraine.

Would I personally sleep a bit easier at night if Liz Truss was like 'gwed Russia, we're out' and left Ukraine to fend for themselves, sure. Putin's not stupid, he knows which buttons to push (sorry) to ramp up people's anxiety. That's why military strategy is decided by experts based on real information, and not the emotional whims of a random science teacher in Liverpool who's just listened to a scary propaganda speech by the enemy leader. I don't know a lot about NATO, but I believe with 100% guaranteed confidence that they do not have one single senior decision maker who gives enough of a shit about the sovereignty of the Donbas region, or indeed Ukraine in general, to risk their own country getting blown up to uphold it. If they press ahead with supporting Ukraine despite Russia's threats it's because with all the concrete intelligence they have access to - which is a lot more than us plebs, unless any of yous on this thread are secretly top generals who spend their downtime bitching about internet celebs on Tattle - they believe it's the best way to ensure our own national security in the long run.

I mean, look at the facts we do know:

1. Russia are declaring a moderately unpopular troop deployment to be rolled out over several months, hardly the actions of a country that intends to end the world on Wednesday week.
2. It's not the first time they've made ranty speeches about nuclear weapons, world war three and the actions of NATO leaders putting us all in danger when things aren't going to plan for them, and it didn't lead to wider escalation.
3. It's not the first time they've suffered an embarrassing setback and had to quickly withdraw their troops - they went from 'ALL OF UKRAINE WILL BE OURS AND YOU CAN NEVER STOP US' to 'er, actually that stuff on the western side was just a distraction tactic and we only ever planned on taking these bits that were in our control anyway' in a matter of weeks, and it didn't lead to wider escalation.
4. It's not the first time there's been anti-war protests in Russia and people scrambling to get out of the country - it happened when the invasion started too, and will have been the expected response to this announcement - and it didn't lead to wider escalation.
5. Ukraine have previously used NATO-supplied weapons to attack Crimea, which Russia regard as their own territory, and IIRC even a few strategic targets within Russia itself, and it didn't lead to wider escalation.
6. Russia have a great opportunity coming up to break European support, when winter comes and we're all paying £700 to heat our homes for half an hour - unless we stop shipping weapons over, in which case they might find a magical solution to the 'technical problems' with Nord Stream. The cold weather will also slow down the pace of Ukrainian advances and give Russia an opportunity to rest troops and re-strategise. The war isn't even close to over yet and both sides know it.
7. They still have military options they haven't yet made use of, like deploying potentially millions of conscripts, that they're reluctant to go with because they'd be unpopular with the Russian public. Well, it's probably safe to assume that starting a nuclear war in their own country would be a lot less popular than that.

There's probably loads more I haven't thought of, those are just what occurred to me in five minutes as a total non-expert who hasn't even been following things that closely. Absolutely nothing points towards them imminently intending to start a nuclear war with NATO, IMO, but it's very much in their interests to make us wonder whether they just might be that crazy.

Finally, if you're anxious try to stop doomscrolling Twitter. There's sometimes good analysis, but equally at times like this it's always been full of propagandists with bad intentions and extremely online types who think they know more than the genuine experts, shouting about how the end is nigh. This is just their latest thing to focus on, after the 'omicron variant wipes out humanity' threat never materialised.

ETA: jeez, that was a bit longer than I thought. Sorry

 

[dorydaryl]

For those of you who are scared, I spent most of my teens and early twenties terrified of WWIII/nuclear war (1980s/ very early 1990s). My late dad went through the same thing during the Cuban Missile Crisis. What a total waste of my youth that was. I couldn't understand how everyone else seemed to be going about 'as normal'. I'm 52, now, and the things I would have done had I known I'd still be here! The world moves on and it will continue to do so. Sadly, there will always be wars. There will always be catastrophic disasters, natural and otherwise. But the world moves on, it does. We are living in difficult and dangerous times but there never was a 'Golden Age' when all was tickety. I think Putin is full of rhetoric. His Generals have families and loved ones who won't want to live out their days in bunkers and they know that the minute they toss a nuke over the border, they've had it. FWIW, I don't want innocent Russians to die either.

 

[Yel]

I do wonder how the BBC spend so much public money on BBC news and are still so sub standard?

They had over half an hour's notice that a press conference was happening in Poland, had cameras set up there but they expected it to be in English and hadn't got a translator on standby so awkwardly cut away after broadcasting it for a bit

 

[VC10]

Nothing is going to happen nuclear wise. Nowt. Zilch.
Shouting g hot air will continue.
The UK is very heavily defended via our 3 Services, and NATO & our Nuclear Submarine deterrent.Also our Cyber-Centres.
Putin fires so much as one bomb onto NATO defended territories & the World ( including the USA as the UK and the USA share a mutual attack pact) would come down on Russia so hard, they wouldnt find their arseholes for breakfast.
And they know it.

 

[thegirlscout]

Allegedly the man was in prison on drug offences, some reports say he had a vape pen but it could be bad google translate. Either way imagine going to prison in a foreign country and then being forced to fight in a war which has nothing to do with you!

 

[Onetwofour]

So now are the protests in Russia. So Russians are only bothered by their mad dictator and their countrys war mongering now it starts to affect them directly?

It's not really uncommon for dictatorships - Russian people just behave the way they had behaved for decades under the USSR regime. Staying uninvolved unless it affects you directly. As soon they lost faith in democracy - already in the 90's, most of them just came back to the old way of trying to make things OK for themselves and not caring about politics/foreign affairs. The deal with Putin when he got elected the first time was that he would bring back law and order and bring some prosperity but people would shut up about politics - oligarchs included.

It will be interesting to see how things will turn now that Russians are pushed into Putin's war. Propaganda is somehow working - especially the nationalist elements of rhetoric - but probably not better than during the communist era but would it be sufficient if new recruits don't get decent equipment/food + the arrival of winter?

I’m on another thread and they’re saying they think he will Nuke the uk x

Just to give a perspective - Russia is using that constantly. We would be already in full nuclear winter if they would really mean it. A nuclear incident is always possible but we should not forget it is mostly threats that are not serious.

 

[Onetwofour]

That concert is scary but you know what else is scary, seeing people being told how to vote by men with guns. Knew he would turn off the tap, there's Italy cut off.

The whole referenda circus really saddened me. It brings back memories from that time where people in Eastern Europe were having their democratic rights stolen after WWII. Whole elections were organised but in real it was just coups to put in place communist regimes under Moscow rule.

That's why Putin's speech disgusted me so much. Yes western imperialism has done a lot of shit and neo-colonialism is a real thing (but not just a western thing) but the atrocities committed by others cannot be served as an apology to Putin's regime. Human rights don't exist in Russia and will disappear in any regions that will be annexed to it. People are delusional to believe that supporting China and Russia will free the world from the excesses of a globalised capitalism and other current problems. They are empires - just like the US are or the European powers were. Both countries keep on persecuting minorities that they absorbed against their will. They only thrive by establishing dominance. Putin almost didn't speak about Ukraine or the NATO. His speech made clear that this war is not about some Russian-speakers feeling persecuted in Ukraine but. The goal is clear: bring back to Russia its previous place in the world order. It needs more vassals and regions under influence - like Eastern Europe to achieve it.

Seems like the people's right of autodetermination will always be a fight.

 

[Dr Silk]

The conflict that is being screened between Ukraine and Russia is a farce.
It is a money laundering racket that is backed by the west and has nothing to do with the poor people of Ukraine. Just check out the FTX scandal and the billions of tax payers money that is being washed around in the pockets of criminals, one being the Ukrainian president.
All the media /news etc we receive is completely censored to the west’s anti Russian narrative.

 

[DownBelow21]

Let's all pray someone gets to assassinate the prick before he goes too far

 

[smirkingrevenge]

Every war is fought by elites for money not to save the poor people.

The war on terror.....20 years and 1 Trillion dollars of tax payers money because of a man hiding in a cave and so called 9/11.

Iraq.....where were the weapons of mass destruction again...?

Russia and Ukraine......read 1984 ....because that’s what’s being played out.

Keep the people in a state of fear.

Standing with Ukraine....what a load of virtue signaling crap. You are being taken for a ride and paying for it with your taxes.


Do you work for the BBC.....or are you a shill ?

Seriously, come to Ukraine and spend a month here. Speak to people. Not politicians, don’t read media, don’t speak to the “elites”. Speak to the average person who now spends half a day on average without electricity because rolling blackouts are a must… see for yourself what it’s like when you see drones and missiles flying above your head or you hear their whistling noise before the impact and explosions.

It’s a war of the elites… what elites in this case? Russian oligarchs and a megalomaniac wanting USSR back and the US trying to prevent it, indirectly?

What do you suggest? And what do you think will happen if Ukraine negotiates, allows russia to take ~30% of it’s territory and places like Mariupol that were really important for the industry and economy and we allow russia to basically have control over the Black Sea? I’ll tell you what will happen. Moldova and Bulgaria will be next. Oh and the cost of living crisis you probably feel yourself? It will be a lot worse the more control russia has.

 

[monga]

You're right as individuals they couldn't and it was probably too much to ask for them all to make a stand, they did that by leaving. Nobody judges your grandparents they did the right thing and today the Russians who choose to get out are doing the right thing.

I feel sorry for the innocent Russian people caught up in this as much as I feel sorry for the Ukrainians, there’s no winners in war.

 

[Yel]

Russia's economy is not doing well - there is a lot of people repeating russian propaganda (probably unknowingly) on the internet. However you shouldn't take Russian stats at face value:

- The ruble is high as you can't trade it.
- The Russian stock market stopped crashing as people can't sell their stocks.
- Russian gas can't be sold to Asia easily as it's not liquefied and there's not the infrastructure to deliver it.
- Russian oil is being sold to Asia, with a $35 a barrel discount as China and India make the most of Russia's position of weakness. With how inefficient their industry is and the long shipping times this isn't lucrative.
- Large amount of their reserves have been spent. Half of reserves they're locked out of and will possibly be given to Ukraine.
- they can't import high tech microchips leaving them decades behind on tech, yes they're getting some via other black market means but not at scale.
- Before this Russia already faced big demographic problems, this has only worsened with a huge brain drain following the war.

I felt it needed to be said as people saying Russia is doing well and the sanctions are only harming other countries is doing the Kremlin's job for them.

German state video, but a hell of a lot more balanced than Russia state media:

 

[dorydaryl]

Throwing thousands of men who don't want to fight into the cesspit of the Russia-Ukraine war is a complete own goal for Putin. It's like chucking away the 'talent' that could make Russia truly strong on an economical level, had he bothered to invest more effectively in skills and education, rather than sabre-rattling. Just like those laid to waste in every major war. Stupid. Am not in the least surprised that there are protests. Took long enough for the penny to drop and it's a shame that many (men and women) will pay with their lives for standing up to authorities.

 

[thegirlscout]

Russian troops gang-raped a 22-year-old Ukrainian mother

The heart-wrenching UN report details how Russian troops, while occupying a village in Chernihiv region, also raped an 83-year-old woman in her house in front of her disabled husband (file image).

www.dailymail.co.uk

This article broke my heart.
‘Russian soldiers gang-raped a 22-year-old Ukrainian mother, sexually abused her husband and made the couple have sex in front of them before raping their four-year-old daughter, a horrifying and damning UN report has revealed…The report also details how Russian soldiers conducted summary executions - executions without trial or due process - in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and the Summy regions, with the youngest victim being a 14-year-old boy.’

 

[thegirlscout]

When Ukraine wasn’t happy with their leader they went out and protested. It got nasty and some people died. They changed their country for the better. Hardly any Russians have gone out and protested - there are millions more Russian citizens than there are officials. They only started protesting when their life was in danger. No went their countrymen were raping young children, women and the elderly, not when they were torturing men, not when they were bombing maternity hospitals, not when they were forcing Ukrainians to Russian, not when they were stealing Ukrainian children children to be adopted by Russians, not when the armies were abusing animals, carving Z’s into dogs snouts and using cats as target practice. The majority only started protesting when they had to fight, when their security and comfort was compromised.
And we are meant to feel sorry for them?
No way. I have sympathy to those who went out and protested, who spoke up, stood up to family and friends. That took courage. But the rest who sat by and agreed with Putin? They can get in the bin.

 

[Blueballs]

Apparently there are demands to tighten visa restrictions for Russians in the EU. I honestly can't believe we're still letting them in. We wouldn't have been taking German tourists during WWII. Love the war / Russia ? Great, stay there. Don't ? Change your sodding government.

My Germany grandparents moved from Germany to the UK during WW2 to escape persecution. I'm very thankful that the UK allowed this. They could hardly do anything to stop Hitler!

 

[Hallowmaiden]

Great thread. Spot on.