Ukraine Russia War #12

[Yel]

Russia's economy is not doing well - there is a lot of people repeating russian propaganda (probably unknowingly) on the internet. However you shouldn't take Russian stats at face value:

- The ruble is high as you can't trade it.
- The Russian stock market stopped crashing as people can't sell their stocks.
- Russian gas can't be sold to Asia easily as it's not liquefied and there's not the infrastructure to deliver it.
- Russian oil is being sold to Asia, with a $35 a barrel discount as China and India make the most of Russia's position of weakness. With how inefficient their industry is and the long shipping times this isn't lucrative.
- Large amount of their reserves have been spent. Half of reserves they're locked out of and will possibly be given to Ukraine.
- they can't import high tech microchips leaving them decades behind on tech, yes they're getting some via other black market means but not at scale.
- Before this Russia already faced big demographic problems, this has only worsened with a huge brain drain following the war.

I felt it needed to be said as people saying Russia is doing well and the sanctions are only harming other countries is doing the Kremlin's job for them.

German state video, but a hell of a lot more balanced than Russia state media:

 

[Miscanthus]

Russia's economy is not doing well - there is a lot of people repeating russian propaganda (probably unknowingly) on the internet. However you shouldn't take Russian stats at face value:

- The ruble is high as you can't trade it.
- The Russian stock market stopped crashing as people can't sell their stocks.
- Russian gas can't be sold to Asia easily as it's not liquefied and there's not the infrastructure to deliver it.
- Russian oil is being sold to Asia, with a $35 a barrel discount as China and India make the most of Russia's position of weakness. With how inefficient their industry is and the long shipping times this isn't lucrative.
- Large amount of their reserves have been spend and half theyre locked out of and will possibly be given to Ukraine.
- they can't import high tech microchips leaving them decades behind on tech, yes they're getting some via other black market means but not at scale.
-Before this Russia already faced big demographic problems, this has only worsened with a brain drain.

I felt it needed to be said as people saying Russia is doing well and the sanctions are only harming other countries is doing the Kremlin's job for them.

German state video, but a hell of a lot more balanced than Russia state media:

Thanks for spelling it out. V interesting.

 

[WhiteFlorals]

Russia's economy is not doing well - there is a lot of people repeating russian propaganda (probably unknowingly) on the internet. However you shouldn't take Russian stats at face value:

- The ruble is high as you can't trade it.
- The Russian stock market stopped crashing as people can't sell their stocks.
- Russian gas can't be sold to Asia easily as it's not liquefied and there's not the infrastructure to deliver it.
- Russian oil is being sold to Asia, with a $35 a barrel discount as China and India make the most of Russia's position of weakness. With how inefficient their industry is and the long shipping times this isn't lucrative.
- Large amount of their reserves have been spent. Half of reserves they're locked out of and will possibly be given to Ukraine.
- they can't import high tech microchips leaving them decades behind on tech, yes they're getting some via other black market means but not at scale.
- Before this Russia already faced big demographic problems, this has only worsened with a huge brain drain following the war.

I felt it needed to be said as people saying Russia is doing well and the sanctions are only harming other countries is doing the Kremlin's job for them.

German state video, but a hell of a lot more balanced than Russia state media:

I read an article today in the Guardian about a exploitative man trying to set up a cult, he made his money, set up a farm, is charging people to join and is planning on working them hard, I am surprised it's not called "Animal farm". He could see the IT and resources issues and has capitalised up in it, pretending he is the opposite.

Chips are going to be a huge issue and in more ways than many are at present are willing to believe.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Four more cargo ships on their way now, grain and sunflower oil for various destinations.

Four cargo ships sail from Ukraine: Turkish, Ukrainian officials

The UN and Turkey brokered a deal to unblock Ukraine’s ports last month after UN warnings of famine.

www.aljazeera.com

Total eight so far, hopefully they can ramp this up to a decent level.
The three ships from the previous group were queued for the bosphorus yesterday so hopefully are now through, depending on traffic...

The first ship to leave Ukraine to is currently anchored outside the Iskenderun/Alexandretta gulf (Turkiye) near the pointy end of Cyprus, still headed to Tripoli (Lebanon).

Progress

 

[Password4321]

Anyone know what this might be?
From the BBC security correspondent:

 

[WhiteFlorals]

Anyone know what this might be?
From the BBC security correspondent:

We will know in three hours. Thank you for the heads up I will pay attention to the news at lunchtime.

Ok so skimming the news we have the ships of food that have been allowed to travel past and prevent famine. We have this morning - the middle East starting up again and new submarines wargames outside Taiwan. I thought it fishy when France was sidelined and that big Australian, USA, UK submarine deal a while back. I await the Chernobyl type event and Iran going for it. I am not even like a headless chicken I am calmly resigned to within a year or so being under a communist dictatorship for a while, and civil war which we will win.

Widespread corruption has always happens at the end of Empires, the lies people will get involved with now a day's days it all total biology denial and anger at material reality truth. I knew this was coming thanks to Claire Fox and Camille Paglia years ago, they were discussing signs it would happen and I looked into the fall of democracy cycle myself. The men getting elected in South America are not good news either.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Anyone know what this might be?
From the BBC security correspondent:

First guess, something about the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Inspection followed by protection, designation of a no fire zone?

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Seems like the news is that Russia's newer military tech all relies on western chips, though I thought we knew that already?

At the same time it seems there's an announcement about Southern Zaporizhzhia region having (or even 'performing') a referendum on joining Russia which won't be representative given anyone able to leave the area has probably done so.

 

[WhiteFlorals]

Seems like the news is that Russia's newer military tech all relies on western chips, though I thought we knew that already?

At the same time it seems there's an announcement about Southern Zaporizhzhia region having (or even 'performing') a referendum on joining Russia which won't be representative given anyone able to leave the area has probably done so.

Do the obtain the chips from Taiwan?

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Do the obtain the chips from Taiwan?

Of course, where else!

c.f. Armageddon, the scene in the spaceship with the guy angrily bashing the knackered pump with the hammer, "American components, Russian components" *bangbangbang* "all made in Taiwan!"...

Edit, OK so my recollection had some finer details somewhat artistically adjusted but 'yeah whatevs'

 

[WhiteFlorals]

Of course, where else!

c.f. Armageddon, the scene in the spaceship with the guy angrily bashing the knackered pump with the hammer, "American components, Russian components" *bangbangbang* "all made in Taiwan!"...

Edit, OK so my recollection had some finer details somewhat artistically adjusted but 'yeah whatevs'

Ha ha ha what a link! Nancy the excommunicated and her husband caught DUI were looking after their investment there in Taiwan.

I note the BBC is reporting more people using cash, I think this is excellent!

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

The components dependencies report

Russian weapons in Ukraine ‘powered’ by Western parts: Report

Russian weapons recovered in Ukraine contained more than 450 foreign-made components, think-tank says.

www.aljazeera.com

Not a short read, though first few paras give a good overview.

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

The first ship to leave Ukraine to is currently anchored outside the Iskenderun/Alexandretta gulf (Turkiye) near the pointy end of Cyprus, still headed to Tripoli (Lebanon).

Progress

Or not... This first shipment has been rejected by buyer due to being late - not sure why they had to wait until now. Rejections are not unheard of and this one possibly understandable as five months late is hardly trivial but I can't shake the feeling that there's something iffy about a surprise decision like that.

Or of course it could just simply be that they found an alternative supplier, (though rejection still unreasonably late) hopefully more details will appear.

Ukraine’s first grain shipment gets snubbed

The buyer in Lebanon refused to accept the cargo, citing delay of delivery terms.

www.politico.eu

 

[WhiteFlorals]

Or not... This first shipment has been rejected by buyer due to being late - not sure why they had to wait until now. Rejections are not unheard of and this one possibly understandable as five months late is hardly trivial but I can't shake the feeling that there's something iffy about a surprise decision like that.

Or of course it could just simply be that they found an alternative supplier, (though rejection still unreasonably late) hopefully more details will appear.

Ukraine’s first grain shipment gets snubbed

The buyer in Lebanon refused to accept the cargo, citing delay of delivery terms.

www.politico.eu

Nobody seems too have been using much critical thinking in the situation.

 

[WhiteFlorals]

Many people want to pack in hosting their Ukrainian refugees, what will happen now to them, they genuinely have no where to go and I understand our hotels are full of Rubber boat - non war torn - Albanian young single men!

 

[Warpaint]

I suppose it's the puppy for Christmas syndrome. They are bored with their Ukrainians now that the war is not featured on the news and it's not as trendy to plaster on social media what good people they are for taking them in.

And no doubt they're not the cuddly peasants they imagined them to be (that's not a diss at the Ukrainians but they were almost painted as poor Victorians straight out of a Dickens novel at one point)

 

[Doctor_Wibble]

Sides blaming each other for lobbing stuff way too close to (or even at) the nuclear power station. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/10/eu-urges-russia-to-handover-nuclear-plant-duties-to-ukraine

Interestingly coincidentally, three of the five power grid connections just happen to have been taken out by the shelling, and of the two remaining only one is 'production' so when that goes they can declare it's not powering Ukraine any more, declare it Russian property and connect it to Crimea. Depending on nothing going wrong and being able to refill their 10 days of generator diesel.

(assuming I understood correctly, summarised points from a subtitled interview!)

In English

Russia to connect Zaporizhzhia NPP to Russian-controlled power grid in Crimea

ROMAN PETRENKO - TUESDAY, 9 AUGUST 2022, 18:23 Petro Kotin, president of Energoatom [a Ukrainian state enterprise operating nuclear power stations in Ukraine - ed.] has said that Russia has begun implementing its plan to disconnect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) from the Ukrainian...

uk.news.yahoo.com

TLDR Russia stealing a power station.

 

[WhiteFlorals]

I suppose it's the puppy for Christmas syndrome. They are bored with their Ukrainians now that the war is not featured on the news and it's not as trendy to plaster on social media what good people they are for taking them in.

And no doubt they're not the cuddly peasants they imagined them to be (that's not a diss at the Ukrainians but they were almost painted as poor Victorians straight out of a Dickens novel at one point)

I read somewhere that the same thing happened in WW1 with Hungarians and the middle class.

So where do we put these Ukrainian refugees with Visas unlike others who have no visa or right to enter our country - they genuinely are escaping war, they are willing to follow our laws I am content to help them - Putin has included convicts in the army now so no wonder the civilians are being treated so badly.

 

[Happy35]

I suppose it's the puppy for Christmas syndrome. They are bored with their Ukrainians now that the war is not featured on the news and it's not as trendy to plaster on social media what good people they are for taking them in.

And no doubt they're not the cuddly peasants they imagined them to be (that's not a diss at the Ukrainians but they were almost painted as poor Victorians straight out of a Dickens novel at one point)

I know a few people who have taken in Ukrainian refugees, most are successful but I think people haven’t considered how much of an impact having another family living in your home would have on them and their family. Only one I am aware of has broken down, and to be honest I couldn’t have coped either, a single woman had taken in a family and came back every day to a house that was messy, dishes everywhere etc and things being constantly broken, the family have now been rehoused in their own property offered by another host

 

[Yel]

I've heard some people shocked that after the 6 months the government hasn't a plan to house the people they offered homes for. I'm not quite sure what they were expecting with the huge backlog and chronic shortage in the UK?

As much as people had their hearts in the right place this matching with random people always seemed like it was going to be a mess.

Some callers on LBC last night were saying they feel taken advantage of as they've housed people from the west of the country who are now going back there for holidays and weddings.