UK Politics #7

[Moth]

y'know the more I think about it the more I'm starting to think the national service thing may have been a genius distraction move by Sunak and co. It's literally all that much of the political news, the satirical news, and many of the opposition candidates have talked and tweeted about for the last 36 hours, and probably will for the next 36. Supposedly the conservatives are scrabbling around to identify a candidate for hundreds of seats (as I think are some of the other parties too), has it all been to buy a 3 day head start in getting their more general act together regarding candidates and formal manifesto without scrutiny and interruption? In a six week snap campaign, three days, especially covering the weekend period when Laura K etc have their shows, is actually pretty significant. Perhaps we should be asking what it's barged out of the news, immigration failure? post office scandal? blood scandal? ta-da ... all gone/reduced coverage!

Also pulling something like this out so early in the campaign lets them do the usual trick of "ok we've listened to the electorate and we'll adapt the proposals like this" and a chunk of people always go "hmmm, actually not so bad after all, in fact I like it".

Or could it be designed to turn a lot of people off the election altogether "hmmm that's such a stupid policy, Labour are bound to walk it, I'm going to watch Euro 24 for the rest of June instead"

Just a theory I'm musing, may be nothing.

But I'll say it again, I really think a lot of this (calling the election now, national service etc) could well be a lot more calculated than people think and I'm not so sure that Labour will easily walk it ...

It's an interesting idea. After what virtually everybody would agree was a disastrous start to the campaign Sunak throws a 'national service' hand grenade to disorientate and deflect attention for a few days while he retreats to lick his wounds and consider what to do next. It's interesting that even Steve Baker claims that this wasn't a government developed policy but one invented by Sunak's advisers i.e. it was political expediency not a government strategy.
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[Moth]

It's an interesting idea. After what virtually everybody would agree was a disastrous start to the campaign Sunak throws a 'national service' hand grenade to disorientate and deflect attention for a few days while he retreats to lick his wounds and consider what to do next. It's interesting that even Steve Baker claims that this wasn't a government developed policy but one invented by Sunak's advisers i.e. it was political expediency not a government strategy.
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Actually this is probably a better theory ...

National service at the heart of Tory election focus on security

Tories hope to make voters – particularly Reform supporters – nervous about prospect of major change under a Labour government

www.theguardian.com

 

[Ndrangheta]

Actually this is probably a better theory ...

National service at the heart of Tory election focus on security

Tories hope to make voters – particularly Reform supporters – nervous about prospect of major change under a Labour government

www.theguardian.com

honestly, how many 'Reform' supporters ARE there? Are the Tories REALLY worried about them? They seem like a total joke to me. But then again, I think the Nazi Party were seen as a bit of a joke when they first appeared.

 

[HelloStereo]

honestly, how many 'Reform' supporters ARE there? Are the Tories REALLY worried about them? They seem like a total joke to me. But then again, I think the Nazi Party were seen as a bit of a joke when they first appeared.

Apparently they poll at around 8% nationally and take 1 in 6 of Conservative's 2019 voters: Survation | Will Reform UK win any seats? | Survation

It could be significant if they split the Conservative vote in a seat with a small margin maybe?

 

[Jc456]

The national service proposal seems to of gone down well in a local town. The towns gone rapidly downhill with a lot if youth crime so they think the structure and discipline will do them good.

 

[CrackingOwlSanctuary]

 

[HelloStereo]

View attachment 2960100

Who do you think you are kidding Mr Sunak

 

[biscuitthief]

Apparently they poll at around 8% nationally and take 1 in 6 of Conservative's 2019 voters: Survation | Will Reform UK win any seats? | Survation

It could be significant if they split the Conservative vote in a seat with a small margin maybe?

It's quite signficant in the marginals definitely. 1 in 6 is quite a swing to Reform. Is it really sad that I want to run the numbers to see roughly how many seats they'd lose?

 

[HelloStereo]

It's quite signficant in the marginals definitely. 1 in 6 is quite a swing to Reform. Is it really sad that I want to run the numbers to see roughly how many seats they'd lose?

If you do please post your findings here

 

[LittleMissOnions]

Perhaps they could combine National Service with Rwanda plan and send all the countries 18yr olds off in their empty planes

 

[biscuitthief]

If you do please post your findings here

I couldn't resist....
So, this is the most basic of estimates based only on the GE2019 Tory vote numbers being reduced by 1/6 and those voters voting Reform ONLY (I basically deducted 1/6 from the Tories and added them to the Brexit Party vote - seeing as Reform are the Brexit Party). It assumes turnout will be the same and that everyone else will vote the same way they did in 2019 (which will not happen). I haven't included any by-election results either. However, given the fact that Labour have taken 7 seats and Lib Dems have taken 4 seats from the Tories since 2019 you can assume the number of seats lost will be far higher.

Con 314 -51
Lab 240 +38
LD 21 +10
Green 1 0
SNP 51 +3
Other 22 0
Reform 0 0

I'd love to know the % of voters who voted tory in 2019 who now plan to vote labour, lib dem etc... But yeah Reform are likely to split the vote.

 

[HelloStereo]

I couldn't resist....
So, this is the most basic of estimates based only on the GE2019 Tory vote numbers being reduced by 1/6 and those voters voting Reform ONLY (I basically deducted 1/6 from the Tories and added them to the Brexit Party vote - seeing as Reform are the Brexit Party). It assumes turnout will be the same and that everyone else will vote the same way they did in 2019 (which will not happen). I haven't included any by-election results either. However, given the fact that Labour have taken 7 seats and Lib Dems have taken 4 seats from the Tories since 2019 you can assume the number of seats lost will be far higher.

Con 314 -51
Lab 240 +38
LD 21 +10
Green 1 0
SNP 51 +3
Other 22 0
Reform 0 0

I'd love to know the % of voters who voted tory in 2019 who now plan to vote labour, lib dem etc... But yeah Reform are likely to split the vote.

Wow thank you for doing this. So Reform could possibly cost the Tories 51 seats with the only variable being then reducing Con support by 1/6?

 

[biscuitthief]

Wow thank you for doing this. So Reform could possibly cost the Tories 51 seats with the only variable being then reducing Con support by 1/6?

Possibly, based on that variable alone. Their majority in those 51 seats simply isn't large enough to be able to afford to lose 1/6 of voters.

Seats with huge Conservative majorities won't really see much of an impact. I've used Maldon as an example. But you can see that even seats with 3, 4k majorities would see a change.

 

[HelloStereo]

Possibly, based on that variable alone. Their majority in those 51 seats simply isn't large enough to be able to afford to lose 1/6 of voters.

View attachment 2960361

Seats with huge Conservative majorities won't really see much of an impact. I've used Maldon as an example. But you can see that even seats with 3, 4k majorities would see a change.

This is why I love Tattle, what an amazing post, thank you . It's so interesting to see what could have been seen as negligible could have such an effect on the election results.

Will be keeping an eye on Maldon on the 4 / 5 July

 

[Jc456]

Where I am could possibly change due to new boundaries. The areas combining are currently conservative and lib dem

 

[biscuitthief]

Where I am could possibly change due to new boundaries. The areas combining are currently conservative and lib dem

I'm very interested to see the results in those areas with significant boundary changes - especially areas such as yours with MPs from two different parties!

My area is part of the Tory 'blue wall' in Essex. Chelmsford and Thurrock will most likely change to Lib Dem and Labour respectively but other than that its all very blue round these parts.

 

[knivesnflowers]

so reform don't have enough concentrated voters to win a seat, but will swing enough tory voters to impact their seat no. it's a win win, and i thank them for their commitment to embarassing both themselves and the tories on 5th July

 

[monga]

Will Starmer recognise a Palestinian state?

 

[tdf]

Reform will win no seats whatever - none at all. Bear in mind the UK's weird odd FPTP system.
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Personally I'm not against the idea of compulsory national service, but Sunak is putting it up the flagpole for opportunistic reasons.

Also worth stating that many European countries have compulsory national service - including Germany and Norway. I've often thought it would be a good idea in my own country (Ireland).
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Labour’s foolish to rule out national service

During an election it’s easy to trash the opponent, but creating a reserve army and forging a common identity will be vital

www.thetimes.co.uk

Not a bad piece from William Hague.

1. Comment

 

[Ndrangheta]

Personally I'm not against the idea of compulsory national service, but Sunak is putting it up the flagpole for opportunistic reasons.

Getting young people to do voluntary work isn't an unreasonable idea. Naming it 'compulsory national service' is stupid. Also, as with most things in this country, whatever it's called it'll be unworkable for a variety of cultural, bureaucratic, and monetary reasons.

I always thought The Duke of Edinburgh Award Scheme was good, at least there seemed to always be positive stories about it in the press. Of course, it might just have been pro-Royal propaganda, it's hard to say. If some sort of national scheme based on that model was set up it would be good. Or, heaven forbid, a nationwide push for 'Youth Clubs' (for want of a better word).