I'm almost certain she fell into the river. It is very sad and I wish they could find her. This needs to end now.
Paul and his botox, his being 100% convinced Nicola is not in the water, Emma and her GFM, calling or not calling the police at a specific time, changing his clothes before searching, putting the dog in the car or not, having funny eyes, possible money problems, all that stuff, is all so irrelevant. None of it is evidence.
The evidence is:
1. Willow was found in the area between the bench and the gate. Willow is important evidence. The phone could be left as a decoy, but a dog which has an attachment to its owner, could not. Willow had not left the bench area, strongly indicating that this was the last place Willow saw Nicola. Willow was untied, so she would have followed Nicola if Nicola had left under her own volition or someone else's. If either Nicola or someone else had not wanted Willow to follow, they would have tied her up. The probability is that if Willow had been tied, and had somehow managed to get out of the harness, she would have gone off in the direction Nicola travelled. It has been shown that a dog can get under the gate. Willow did not leave the area.
2. Peter F. said that the water by the bench was 2.5 feet but in the middle was 3.5 metres, and the water was deeper on the day Nicola went missing so it was a little bit higher. So the river is extremely deep and the drop into it from the bank is approximately 10 feet. If she had fallen, winded and/or injured from the fall, and found herself in the centre of the river quickly, with all those clothing layers she would have gone under very fast.
3. Really important: the police have excluded various exits Allotment Lane, Rowan Water, the path next to the Grapes pub, the "caravan park" and the farm due to CCTV and searches. Not seeing someone on CCTV and not finding anything to indicate someone's presence is evidence that they were not there. They are satisfied that it was physically impossible for her to have left this way based on this evidence of searches and CCTV. The "abandoned house" aka property renovation is across the river, so anyone who abducted her from there would have had to swim across the river to reach her and swim back again with her - impossible.
4. There is no CCTV on the riverwalk from the bench back to Garstang Road so this is the missing bit. No-one saw her leave there which is why they're appealing for dashcam footage there. But if she walked back out that way it was a massively, ridiculously risky route to take in an area full of dog walkers, when she could have bumped into anyone else at any moment. It is a pretty short walk. Parking on Garstang Road where the path meets the road is very difficult and the road is very busy.
5. Is there another way out? Theoretically yes, out from the upper field where she was spotted with Willow, and across the fields and up the river that way. But the area is totally open, there is no coverage, and again it would be incredibly risky to abduct her that way or walk that way without being spotted. It is theoretically possible but not remotely probable or likely.
6. And even if it was theoretically possible, and she walked out of the upper field where she was last seen with Willow at around 9.10, how do an untied Willow and the phone get back to the bench? The phone was on the bench at 9.20 and Willow was found at 9.33.
There really is only one logical and reasonable explanation when you look at the possibilities that the evidence has eliminated. Of course if you decide that "the police messed up the search" or "CCTV can be wrong" or "Emma dressed up as Nicola that day" then I guess you can come up with up with your own peculiar theory. Some people do enjoy doing that.
I truly hope she is found because that family will be in hell until she is.
I have now lost the video which covered all this brilliantly with a map, but I'll find it and post. It is by far and away the most sensible thing I've seen so far.
