Coronavirus Disease Outbreak COVID-19 #77

[Cupcakemum]

Just leaving that threat hanging over us

If infections are starting to decline I don’t see how it could be justified.

Should be planning and communicating the reopening of society more importantly.

Infections seemed to decline just before before lockdown.
Question you need to ask is, why is it that the government scientists say that it takes 2-3wks to see a lag in positive infections cases when there isn't a lockdown, but when there is a lockdown and cases come instantly down that they say its due to lockdown. Why don't we have to wait 2 - 3wks then as well....??

 

[xoxo GG]

My problem is that I have good hearing as well, so in the day time I am struggling to concentrate on work, because I can hear every other word It’s literally non stop, and with lockdown it’s annoying as well. Plus at least one of them loves football so periodically we get a football match with Yaaaays. We will have a chat, I think.


Okay, I see. I assumed that if it was parties and breaking the lockdown rules they would act.

You don’t know that it is a party though. If it’s happening everyday I’d say the likelihood is that they don’t understand how loud they are actually being. They may have moved from a house where the neighbours couldn’t hear them or didn’t mention it to them. Sometimes I don’t realise how loud I’ve got my music on, especially if I’m loading the dishwasher or wandering around downstairs cleaning. Luckily I get on well with my neighbour so she texts me if it’s disturbing her and I’ll turn it down.

 

[ellen12]

Just finished my application to be a vaccinator in the NE, fingers crossed

 

[Peartree]

Ours are still rising too, although the data is only up to and including the 8th, so might be a possibility of a decline of sorts by now. (I hope anyway)
I wonder how much is the new variant here and if that has any part to play.

Are you on Facebook? There’s a page ‘covid cases in bury’ the person puts up to date daily figures for every area in the UK - rises and falls.

 

[jazyblu]

Infections seemed to decline just before before lockdown.
Question you need to ask is, why is it that the government scientists say that it takes 2-3wks to see a lag in positive infections cases when there isn't a lockdown, but when there is a lockdown and cases come instantly down that they say its due to lockdown. Why don't we have to wait 2 - 3wks then as well....??

Do you mean infections declined just before this lockdown? Cases did continue to rise after the 6th of Jan.

It has pretty much has been 2-3 weeks between restrictions and a sort of levelling off of cases.

A national lockdown in England was announced on the 4th Jan however something like 80% of the country were placed in tier 4 on Boxing Day (and some areas earlier) so it has been 2.5 weeks since then.
There isn't much between tier 4 and lockdown other than schools but schools were closed over Christmas anyway.
Cases have only really started levelling off in the last 2 days, which although that is great it is too early to actually call for certain until they have plateaued for longer and then start to drop.

 

[Cupcakemum]

Do you mean infections declined just before this lockdown? Cases did continue to rise after the 6th of Jan.

It has pretty much has been 2-3 weeks between restrictions and a sort of levelling off of cases.

A national lockdown in England was announced on the 4th Jan however something like 80% of the country were placed in tier 4 on Boxing Day (and some areas earlier) so it has been 2.5 weeks since then.
There isn't much between tier 4 and lockdown other than schools but schools were closed over Christmas anyway.
Cases have only really started levelling off in the last 2 days, which although that is great it is too early to actually call for certain until they have plateaued for longer and then start to drop.

But many places were still in tier 3 at Christmas, and the government said that tiers weren't working, which is why they went full lockdown again. Its only been a little over a week since full lockdown, but the numbers suggest that positive numbers were going down as lockdown was announced.
Who at this point does anyone believe?

 

[jazyblu]

But many places were still in tier 3 at Christmas, and the government said that tiers weren't working, which is why they went full lockdown again. Its only been a little over a week since full lockdown, but the numbers suggest that positive numbers were going down as lockdown was announced.
Who at this point does anyone believe?

Well the numbers don't suggest positive numbers were going down as lockdown was announced though, lockdown was announced on 4th and we didn't even hit the highest day of cases until the 8th and the days after that were still high.

80% of the England being in tier 4 is pretty wide reaching, that is the vast majority. NI, Wales and Scotland went into full lockdown before England too.
It is possible that tier 4 wouldn't be enough in a normal month but over Christmas many people will have had 2 weeks off work and schools were shut. What the number of cases beginning to decline now shows us is that over the full Christmas period the majority of people altered their behaviour and restricted mixing.

We are almost 3 full weeks since 85-90% of the country lived under almost full lockdown restrictions so it seems about right that cases are only starting to level off now.

 

[Jamhead]

Are you on Facebook? There’s a page ‘covid cases in bury’ the person puts up to date daily figures for every area in the UK - rises and falls.

I am, that sounds very helpful but I try to stay away from too much of it. I come on here and check local stats every week or so at the minute. I find it helps to stop me from getting too anxious.

 

[monga]

But many places were still in tier 3 at Christmas, and the government said that tiers weren't working, which is why they went full lockdown again. Its only been a little over a week since full lockdown, but the numbers suggest that positive numbers were going down as lockdown was announced.
Who at this point does anyone believe?

From what they said a couple of days ago on the BBC it's the places that were at the highest tier are seeing a decline but other places are on the up ?

 

[Giggling Squid]

From what they said a couple of days ago on the BBC it's the places that were at the highest tier are seeing a decline but other places are on the up ?

That’s what the regional data suggests

 

[Cupcakemum]

Well the numbers don't suggest positive numbers were going down as lockdown was announced though, lockdown was announced on 4th and we didn't even hit the highest day of cases until the 8th and the days after that were still high.

80% of the England being in tier 4 is pretty wide reaching, that is the vast majority. NI, Wales and Scotland went into full lockdown before England too.
It is possible that tier 4 wouldn't be enough in a normal month but over Christmas many people will have had 2 weeks off work and schools were shut. What the number of cases beginning to decline now shows us is that over the full Christmas period the majority of people altered their behaviour and restricted mixing.

We are almost 3 full weeks since 85-90% of the country lived under almost full lockdown restrictions so it seems about right that cases are only starting to level off now.

From what they said a couple of days ago on the BBC it's the places that were at the highest tier are seeing a decline but other places are on the up ?

According to the Zoe app numbers had peaked and most places were on the way back down as lockdown was announced, as you'll see here.
Obviously some towns will vary, I'm in one where numbers are increasing, but this is an average of areas as a whole. This to me is good news! But it shows that numbers were starting to plateau as the national lockdown was announced.
I'm not anti virus, or lockdown I just refuse to buy into hysteria and I'm really worried about the effects of lockdown on mental health, jobs, education and over 4 million people that are waiting for hospital treatment because of lockdown

 

[monga]

According to the Zoe app numbers had peaked and most places were on the way back down as lockdown was announced, as you'll see here.
Obviously some towns will vary, I'm in one where numbers are increasing, but this is an average of areas as a whole. This to me is good news! But it shows that numbers were starting to plateau as the national lockdown was announced.
I'm not anti virus, or lockdown I just refuse to buy into hysteria and I'm really worried about the effects of lockdown on mental health, jobs, education and over 4 million people that are waiting for hospital treatment because of lockdown

It's looks like they were at the peak around Jan 7th when was the English lockdown ?

 

[Platypusfattypus]

People are not waiting for treatment due to lockdown, but because there isn't enough resources to provide any other services then acute services.

Our numbers were still rising after the lockdown.

 

[Cupcakemum]

It's looks like they were at the peak around Jan 7th when was the English lockdown ?

The 5th, so that doesn't give national lockdown chance to work, and to be fair London was the only place that was a few days behind the rest of England. Everyone else was starting to plateau

 

[Giggling Squid]

The 5th, so that doesn't give national lockdown chance to work, and to be fair London was the only place that was a few days behind the rest of England. Everyone else was starting to plateau

Lockdown will accelerate the decrease in cases thereby reducing the pressure on the NHS faster?

 

[jazyblu]

According to the Zoe app numbers had peaked and most places were on the way back down as lockdown was announced, as you'll see here.
Obviously some towns will vary, I'm in one where numbers are increasing, but this is an average of areas as a whole. This to me is good news! But it shows that numbers were starting to plateau as the national lockdown was announced.
I'm not anti virus, or lockdown I just refuse to buy into hysteria and I'm really worried about the effects of lockdown on mental health, jobs, education and over 4 million people that are waiting for hospital treatment because of lockdown

Going by your own graph cases had not started going down in the majority of places as lockdown was announced. The only area that started to plateau before the 4th was Wales, which had it's own lockdown earlier than England anyway.

No hysteria, just the data you have provided yourself.

 

[monga]

The 5th, so that doesn't give national lockdown chance to work, and to be fair London was the only place that was a few days behind the rest of England. Everyone else was starting to plateau

That graph is only an estimate of people with symptomatic Covid not on pos cases . I think the Gov model theirs on all pos cases both asym/sym?

 

[Cupcakemum]

Going by your own graph cases had not started going down in the majority of places as lockdown was announced. The only area that started to plateau before the 4th was Wales, which had it's own lockdown earlier than England anyway.

No hysteria, just the data you have provided yourself.

But they had started going down just a week after lockdown. So back to my first post when I said that we're told there's a 2 - 3wks lag on positive cases and they can go up, but there's less than a week that shows cases were starting to go down just after lockdown. No lag there, its just a week. Based on their 2 - 3wks we shouldn't start seeing a difference yet from lockdown because they said tiers weren't working. Their words, not mine.. and yet we are seeing a difference

 

[jazyblu]

But they had started going down just a week after lockdown. So back to my first post when I said that we're told there's a 2 - 3wks lag on positive cases and they can go up, but there's less than a week that shows cases were starting to go down just after lockdown. No lag there, its just a week. Based on their 2 - 3wks we shouldn't start seeing a difference yet from lockdown because they said tiers weren't working. Their words, not mine.. and yet we are seeing a difference

A week after lockdown yes, not before lockdown was announced as you claimed several times.

You cannot compare this to a regular in vs out of lockdown situation. It wasn't everyone going about their normal life one day then lockdown the next.
Tier 4 over Christmas was equivalent to the national lockdown restrictions, although in tier 4 workplaces more workplaces would stay open and schools would stay open this wasn't the case due to the Christmas holidays.
In effect the lockdown restrictions began on the 26th when retail shut, hospitality was closed in 80% of England, people were off work and children were all home from schools. More people would have returned to work and schools on the 5th however a national lockdown extended these restrictions.

That makes 2-3 weeks of restrictions until the last few days when cases began to reduce.

 

[McNuggets]

Wonder why there is a delay on reporting the deaths today? Making me nervous. I hope it’s not really bad.