Italy went on lock down on the 9th March.
In Italy on the 9th March there was:
- 9172 total confirmed cases in the country of coronavirus
- 1797 new case announced in that day alone
- 463 total deaths in the country from coronavirus
- 97 deaths in that day
On March 4th Italy has:
-just over 3000 confirmed cases in total of coronavirus
-587 of these are reported on March 4th
-a total 107 deaths in total from the virus at this time.
The UKs figures as of March 18th:
-2626 total confirmed cases of coronavirus
-676 of those reported on March 18th
-a total of 104 deaths.
If we are following Italy’s model we will lock down from Tuesday.
I am not convinced we are following Italy's model.
People compare the date of first death in Italy and the first death in the UK and project forward from there.
However, both Italy and the UK reported their first infection on the same date, 31st January and of you work forward from that date then Italy has recorded 35,793 cases in 48 days and the UK 2696 in the same period. This would suggest the UK has done a much better job of containing the virus.
The clustering of cases is very different in Italy and the UK which may have also had an effect. 60% of infections in Italy have occurred in the Lombardy region which only 9200 square miles, Italy is 187,000 miles in total.
It has been said that we are 2 weeks behind Italy but we are better prepared. The Lombardy region was swamped before the Italian authorities were able to mobilise effective measures.
I am hopeful we will not suffer the agony Italy has.