PS: just to add, I hope I don’t come across as being snotty with you. I do understand your arguments, I just don’t weight them the same. As I say, I was a staunch remainer until I saw the speed of discontent spreading.
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No, it’s fine, I just see the discontent not changing with the austerity currently seen (including, the racism/xenophobia with the wars). I don’t see leaving the EU creating a better environment, as austerity will get worse causing more disengagement with the main political parties leading to a surge in memberships to right wing groups.
To add on, if we do leave the EU, this will inevitably cause more countries to follow, especially those with a more right wing populist party. Leaving the EU will cause an even larger wave of right wing parties taking power due to disenfranchised civilians thinking that Trump and Brexit will stop the refugee crisis and the terror attacks. The right wing parties prey upon those ideals. Brexit will cause the biggest resurgence in right wing ideals we haven’t seen in our lifetimes. The Good Friday agreement will be null and void, and that will cause so many issues and fractures with Ireland, leading to catastrophic violence. Quite frankly, as we inherently do have control over our own policies, as well as have a say in the EU’s vetos (maybe don’t vote for an MEP who doesn’t turn up to Brussels then witches about not having a say), there’s no argument. Brexit will cause too much death, violence, and intolerance in an already uneasy society.
That’s where I think we differ - what I have a real concern over is some of the more nefarious groups throughout the EU joining forces and gaining a central ‘legitimste’ power base in Brussels. MEPs easier to elect in a one to one basis. It’s literally gaining momentum day on day. We’ve already seen Geert Wilders banding with Tommy Robinson; the populist parties being celebrated. It’s not going away. In individual countries the power effect is diffused - a right wing party will have to go some to defeat Lab or Con in FPTP to gain control. The most they can do is be a fringe pressure group.
I have to say if leaving has such a bleak effect as you forecast, it really only solidified my opinion that the EU has morphed into an all-controlling power monster, totally insensitive to the nuances of its member states’ political landscape and economies. Like the Hotel California, you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave. And that includes when it implodes (which it’s going to do whether we stay or leave)
I’ve seen how much money the EU has invested in Wales and it’s infrastructure, I’ve seen how much it’s tried to help the poorest areas of the U.K. when our government didn’t want to, I’ve seen how much their laws and policies have helped us (environmental, workers rights). The EU has done more for the most vulnerable in our society than any government.
I have a bleak outlook because trade deals take years upon years to negotiate (from negotiating to signing on average 18 years, from negotiating to implementation 45 years (1)). We don’t have that time. The EU and it’s customs union are the best in the world, that’s why so many companies choose to deal with it. A No Deal Brexit will be a disaster, the EU won’t budge on their deal (as they rightly shouldn’t - they made their position clear and quite honestly, why should they bend over backwards for us) and the MPs said no to May’s deal. If you’re truly naive enough to believe a No deal Brexit, won’t be the worst thing to happen to this country since the economic crash, maybe even before then, you truly truly are bitter and fell for the propaganda presented by the Eurosceptics who’re only in this to make the rich richer. I’m sorry, but the Good Friday agreement (2, 3, 4), trade deals (we receive nearly 80% of our imports from the EU; we don’t produce enough of our own medications), are too serious to piss about over.
(1) https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/07/how-long-do-trade-deals-take-after-brexit/
(2) https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....-border-brexit-backstop-good-friday-agreement
(3) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/14/brexit-threatens-good-friday-agreement-irish-pm-warns
(4) https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....mulls-amending-good-friday-agreement-get/amp/
I haven’t said I want no deal Brexit or that it will be good for the UK economy. In earlier posts I said leaving the EU would be awful for our economy in the short term. You’re clearly very interested and read on the subject, but seems like you get a red mist and view opposing opinions in stereotype boxes and it feels like I’m being misrepresented just so you can strike off your points of argument.
I really want a deal. (Unfortunately the options on this thread’s poll didn’t include leave with a deal).
This article from foreign policy.com pretty much summarises why I want to leave:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/15/is-europe-falling-apart/amp/
Just on your links:
(1) is from 2016, when Obama was President. Trump has indicated he is ready to negotiate and quickly https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-46428677
I also skim read and couldn’t see the 18 year negotiation to 45 year implementation figure in the source, I saw 1.5 average for bilateral but I am pretty knackered so could’ve missed it!
(2) and (3) are pretty biased coming from The Guardian (I read it but do acknowledge the slant). But I agree NI is extremely worrying. I’m hoping that there will be some common sense applied and concessions to keep peace and economic interest for all concerned. I think the trade side is easier to deal with than keeping the peace.
I'm so annoyed that people are encouraging stock piling
We shouldn't need to be in a situation where we have to stockpile food (it's been a good business opportunity for those who have already set up large storage units
). It's very concerning for people who need a constant supply of medication to survive, I do hope there aren't major delays at ports etc.
Yeah that's not helping anyone.
I think the deal is going to go through with all the bribes she's making.
The supermarkets were totally out of fresh food last year (not even exaggerating) after 2-3 days of snow stopping deliveries. Everything is so last minute and just in time with pretty much all supply chains. It's concerning the lack of contingency plans.
Apparently the queen is a bit more organised....
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/plan-to-evacuate-the-queen-after-a-no-deal-brexit-35hft7ctw
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/plan-to-evacuate-the-queen-after-a-no-deal-brexit-35hft7ctw
The Royals will always be fine and protected (speaking as a Royal fan- not quite sure why but I am, lol)
Yeah of course - their events calendar runs 5 years in advance! I don’t mind the royals either in just as confusing a way as on paper they represent everything I am against. But I find this is quite a common, if paradoxical, feeling to have. There is something quite facisnating about the life they lead. It’s so ridiculous. Anyway, back on topic ...
Something about that headline and story - and the fact it’s from the times, not a tabloid sensationalist paper - just made our whole sorry , scary situation feel quite apocalyptic.
Something about that headline and story - and the fact it’s from the times, not a tabloid sensationalist paper - just made our whole sorry , scary situation feel quite apocalyptic.
I think a second vote. In my opinion the referendum should never have been put forward for the public to vote. I voted to remain. There were lies on both sides to encourage people to vote either way which was totally wrong.
The government should have arranged a 'leave deal in principle and 'stay option' and people vote based on that. At the moment it's like walking into a darkened room completely blindfolded.
And don't even get me started on "project fear"...when business experts, financial experts etc were all predicting the possible dangers, I don't understand why anyone would ignore that?!?!
The government should have arranged a 'leave deal in principle and 'stay option' and people vote based on that. At the moment it's like walking into a darkened room completely blindfolded.
And don't even get me started on "project fear"...when business experts, financial experts etc were all predicting the possible dangers, I don't understand why anyone would ignore that?!?!
The attorney general has said the UK could be still held in the backstop with the withdrawal deal ammended last night.
So looking like another heavy defeat tonight.
Then they will probably vote against leaving without a deal making it all even more confused than ever what the next steps will be.
So looking like another heavy defeat tonight.
Then they will probably vote against leaving without a deal making it all even more confused than ever what the next steps will be.
Yep it’s a bloody mess.
Can't see how Theresa can stay now but no one else really wants the job. Wonder if she will finally go after everything shes worked for has come to nothing. Maybe a general election is next.
Poor woman is sucking a locket and can barely speak, she seems done with it all.
Poor woman is sucking a locket and can barely speak, she seems done with it all.
So after listening to LBC pretty much constantly, I think it will play out as follows:-
Polls last night indicated that voting sway has remained unchanged; leave marginally ahead of remain, momentum amongst leaders wanting no deal increasing to about half of all leave votes.
In short; great for the economy, bad for democracy. Sets a precedent for future closely matched referendums to be obfuscated and frustrated into a politically preferable option. Not sure I like MPs having that power, especially with parties becoming polarised.
- No Deal will be voted down tonight
- There will be an extension sought (hopefully the EU will agree, if not we are hard Brexit on 29th March regardless of this shite)
- It will rumble on until May/June
- General election will be called
- more pointless batting about the same points; leave will be even more costly as EU will insist on bigger settlement
- Rinse repeat of last 3 months
- Second referendum
- Leave vote will be split between No Deal and whatever deal is on the table, ensuring remain wins
Polls last night indicated that voting sway has remained unchanged; leave marginally ahead of remain, momentum amongst leaders wanting no deal increasing to about half of all leave votes.
In short; great for the economy, bad for democracy. Sets a precedent for future closely matched referendums to be obfuscated and frustrated into a politically preferable option. Not sure I like MPs having that power, especially with parties becoming polarised.
It's a shambles. Completely agree with MunkyMagic's analysis above.
Wow. That was close... only 4 votes between leaving No Deal on the table and not. Did not expect that.
Wow didn't expect that at all. Gutted I've been so busy and unable to listen to all this live.
Totally agree with @MunkyMagic apart from the splitting of the second vote, I don't think people would stand for such a loaded second vote.
Totally agree with @MunkyMagic apart from the splitting of the second vote, I don't think people would stand for such a loaded second vote.