House Prices #4 Property market, buying and selling

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I’ve always thought it strange that these longer fixes aren’t available as readily in the U.K. as they are in other places. In the US I’m pretty sure people often fix for their whole mortgage term.
People want the freedom to move though, its rare someone buys a house and lives in it all their life. You can't get out of a fix rathe without paying a hefty penalty
 
Yep it can often be moved. I think people didn't fix for longer as they liked taking their chances and thinking it could get even cheaper.

In hindsight I bet millions wish they'd fixed for 10 years when 0.99% was possible. Now they're facing rates of 5% and more. But people are shortsighted, if all you've seen for the last decade is ever falling rates some thought they'd only carry on falling.
 
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Data out today showing the average rates increasing over last few weeks. It's like a house of cards waiting to fall down with interest rates rising, inflation high and tax also increasing.

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House builder saying reservations are down 25% in the first four months of the year. The rate rises have really bitten recently so could only just be the start of it

Bellway reservations sink 25% and housebuilder warns of further slowdown as rising interest rates bite
  • Smaller forward order book of £1.7bn, compared with £2.4bn a year ago
  • On track to build 11,000 homes over the year to July, 200 less than in 2022
  • Average selling prices to drop to £300,000, compared to £314,400
 
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i think we're about to see a huge quake in the whole housing market. I live in a very affluent area and houses are being marketed for tens of thousands of pounds less than they were months ago - and they still aren't selling. Anyone about to renew their mortgage is looking into the abyss - me included. And its terrifying.
 
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i think we're about to see a huge quake in the whole housing market. I live in a very affluent area and houses are being marketed for tens of thousands of pounds less than they were months ago - and they still aren't selling. Anyone about to renew their mortgage is looking into the abyss - me included. And its terrifying.
I think it's unavoidable at this point. House prices just became so out of sync with wages. Since the last recession it was like a plate spinning trick keeping rates artificially low and pretending things were fine.

It should have been addressed ages ago but successive governments have kept it going.

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Article in the telegraph yesterday - https://archive.is/LGHNY

It is already too late to save Britain’s doomed housing market
More pain is coming for millions of homeowners

It was the news that Britain’s legion of squeezed homeowners was dreading – the strongest hint yet from the Bank of England that borrowers should anticipate more than one further interest rate rise in the coming months despite already being at their highest level since 2008.
 
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If you don't plan to sell your house in the short term then ride the storm.

If you do want to sell then you have to take the pain of a lower than desired sale price - plus higher rate of repayment on the borrowing for your next home - which may mean you have to reduce down the amount you can borrow.

I think we will find that the high mortgage rates will eradicate any hoped for benefits of reduced house prices for those trying to get onto the property ladder.
 
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New article on the BBC with another builder saying less demand and someone from foxtons basically saying sellers need to reduce prices. So many of these articles in the last few days

Ian Burns, who runs Cameron Homes in Staffordshire, said people were being "very cautious" and were "taking longer to make decisions".
"Over the past three or four weeks, we've seen a slowdown in reservations and ultimately, if that doesn't pick up, then we have to slow down the build operation," he told BBC Wake up to Money.

"We can't just continue to build houses if we don't have customers for them."

Guy Gittins, chief executive of Foxtons estate agents in London, said the "power balance" between buyers and sellers had "shifted". He said this meant "serious sellers had to get a little bit more competitive with pricing".


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I think we will find that the high mortgage rates will eradicate any hoped for benefits of reduced house prices for those trying to get onto the property ladder.
It'll be a mixed bag IMO, those with a good deposit will benefit. Those taking on a lot of debt it'll be a bit zero sum as house prices reduce to reflect the higher cost of borrowing. Although long term society will benefit from house prices being somewhat in sync with wages and interest rates not being held artificially low.
 
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Article on the mail about house prices; basically one guy says falls of 35% and the other no falls.

When you think they rose 20% with the covid money printing and stamp duty holiday then a similar fall to take them back to pre covid levels doesn't seem monumental.

Most of the comments are about supply & demand, immigrants etc and they won't fall. I think that misses that even if people want to buy, getting the financing has become so much harder now rates are approaching 6%.

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I’m not sure they will hugely fall because rents are going up at a similar rate and ultimately it makes more sense to buy than to rent in the long run.
However, prices are definitely not going up any time soon which, when wages are continuing to increase, ultimately equals an easier loan to value ratio and more “affordable” debt property in the long run
 
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I’m not sure they will hugely fall because rents are going up at a similar rate and ultimately it makes more sense to buy than to rent in the long run.
I think while people may want to still buy, the finance may be out of reach. But it all depends on what you classify as hugely fall. Already down 4% in a year. I can see another 16% fall to wipe off the post covid insanity.
 
I think while people may want to still buy, the finance may be out of reach. But it all depends on what you classify as hugely fall. Already down 4% in a year. I can see another 16% fall to wipe off the post covid insanity.
People I know who are currently buying are just resorting to much longer terms.
Either way younger people are screwed.
Even if prices fall, the interest is so high that it doesn’t make it more affordable. And if they do fall, a lot of people who bought recently will have negative equity and will have a huge headache with remortgaging and may have to go onto standard variable
And the older generations will sit in their half a million homes that they bought for £50k and claim that in their day it was more difficult (an experience I actually had with older relatives this weekend, who bought a 3 bed house on a single post office salary).
 
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Even if prices fall, the interest is so high that it doesn’t make it more affordable.
Well it all depends on how much they fall.

Things are quite out of balance at the moment, will be interesting to see how it readjusts. Long term young people will be better off if house prices have some correlation to wages.

Now prices are falling and highly unlikely to increase so some may not complete and sit tight. Sentiment is quickly changing.

It's become increasingly hard to get a mortgage in recent weeks unless you have a good job, very good credit rating and good deposit.

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Well it all depends on how much they fall.

Things are quite out of balance at the moment, will be interesting to see how it readjusts. Long term young people will be better off if house prices have some correlation to wages.

Now prices are falling and highly unlikely to increase so some may not complete and sit tight. Sentiment is quickly changing.

It's become increasingly hard to get a mortgage in recent weeks unless you have a good job, very good credit rating and good deposit.

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It would have to fall significantly to get to the same level of affordability as before.
Currently a £200,000 loan over 25 years at 5.8% would cost £1264 a month.
A couple of years ago the house would’ve cost £791 (1.4%) interest.
To achieve the same payment level, house prices would have to drop 40%.
 
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It would have to fall significantly to get to the same level of affordability as before.
Currently a £200,000 loan over 25 years at 5.8% would cost £1264 a month.
A couple of years ago the house would’ve cost £791 (1.4%) interest.
To achieve the same payment level, house prices would have to drop 40%.
Those figure sound right, but no one fixed for the term 2 years ago. So those people that took a 200k loan an 1.4% will be going to 5.8% either now or in a couple of years.
 
Those figure sound right, but no one fixed for the term 2 years ago. So those people that took a 200k loan an 1.4% will be going to 5.8% either now or in a couple of years.
They definitely will be, but I don’t think people took that into account when they took out the loans. Very few people who bought houses (that I know anyway) took rates into consideration
 
No one wins if prices fall except cash buyers. The only way for young FTBs to achieve progress is to demand better wages. People are constantly rooting for house prices to fall instead of putting energy into pressuring government into increasing wages. We are still paid the same as people in early 2000s but everything (and not only houses!) got more expansive. Not fair!
 
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