French Politics

[Yel]

It looks almost certainly to be Macron Vs le pen in the second round. Some polls are putting it as close as 53 Vs 47 in macrons favour and his Ukraine boost is disappearing by the day.

Next weekend for the first round and unlikely he'll win with a majority.

So three weeks today (24th April) for the second round.

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The race to be France's next president is tightening as election day nears, polls show.

Emmanuel Macron's lead has dwindled over the past few weeks, as opponents from both the far-Right and far-Left see an eleventh hour rise in support in the polls.

Yet Mr Macron is still holding onto first place after seeing a boost to his numbers in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

French election 2022 poll tracker: Emmanuel Macron's lead dwindles as Marine Le Pen mounts comeback

The Telegraph is tracking the latest polling for the French presidential election, ahead of the first round of voting on April 10

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Ensay]

I'm not a Macron fan, but he's better than Marine Le Pen. Is there no other alternative to Macron than the far right?

 

[Yel]

I'm not a Macron fan, but he's better than Marine Le Pen. Is there no other alternative to Macron than the far right?

Melenchon, but he's highly unlikely to make it. Although support has been rising.

Both Macron and le pen neither are not a good prospect, but for very different reasons.

 

[Romy]

I'm not a Macron fan, but he's better than Marine Le Pen. Is there no other alternative to Macron than the far right?

Yes there are alternatives (starting by traditional big parties) but they certainly won't have enough votes.

In the far right, Le Pen has a serious challenger too, Eric Zemmour.

 

[Yel]

Zemmour is going down in the polls, it's tightening ever more between Macron and lepen over the last few days. Close to another 48/52 for the second round apparently

While Macron was busy talking with Russian President Vladimir Putin and meeting world leaders, Le Pen continued her campaign in La France profonde (deep France) hammering on about everyday life problems such as the price of fuel and people’s purchasing power.

“Le Pen did a proximity campaign, visiting a lot of small towns and villages. Her trips were not very much covered by national press but had a big echo in local media,” said Mathieu Gallard, research director at polling firm Ipsos. “She gave an impression of proximity, which is very important for French voters.”

How Marine Le Pen closed the gap on Emmanuel Macron

The far-right leader’s campaign strategy is finally paying off against the incumbent French president as the election approaches.

www.google.com

 

[Miscanthus]

Meanwhile macron had an election rally in a sports stadium with flags on every seat for attendees to wave and supporters bussed in. I think he was taking tips from Putin during one of their chats.

 

[Yel]

It's pretty grim how Macron was requesting all these calls with Putin until it no longer helped his ratings.

 

[Romy]

I can't imagine Le Pen will have enough votes to become president but people are not very enthusiastic with those elections anyway.
What will do the difference or could cause surprises is the participation as far-right electors are always very mobilized.

 

[Yel]

I think lepen is wining so many votes as she seems moderate compared to the other far right candidate. Some polls have put her ahead, although most predict Macron to just beat her. Campaigning ends today.

The polish prime minister isn't wrong:

Mr Macron, who has spoken to Putin more than a dozen times since Russia launched its invasion on February 24, was accused by Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki of ‘negotiating with criminals.’

In an extraordinary EU spat, Mr Macron hit back: ‘Those words are both unfounded and scandalous, but they don’t surprise me.

 

[Romy]

Le Pen is winning votes because her speech changed and she softened it too. But she's still the same. And the people who vote for Zemmour will certainty vote for her if she makes it to the second round.

According to the last polls, Melenchon would be the third.

Vote is tomorrow.

 

[Yel]

I wonder if Macron is looking at Johnsons visit to Kyiv and planning his own trip to try and get the surge he first got during the Ukraine crisis?

Polls tighted even more before they were stopped yesterday and with the lack of interest in the election that often benefits people on the right.

Two weeks is a long time and enough for it to go either way.

Voting closes 8pm french time, 7pm UK time and exit polls will be released then.

 

[Romy]

It closes at UK time 6 or 7 (big cities, suburbs of big cities). There is less participation apparently but there was a lot of people at my poll station.

Boris Johnson
the EU is moving together in Ukraine.

Participation in the hexagon is estimated at 73,8% (3 or 4% less than 2017).

First official estimations (although station polls are not all closed because of the queues) :
MACRON around 28%
LE PEN around 23%

 

[Yel]

Not quite as close as predicted from the exit poll, but could still go either way in two weeks

 

[Romy]

Same finalists than 2017 and same disaster for the two former biggest parties : Le Parti Socialiste at left (2%) and Les Républicains at right (5%).

 

[Yel]

I do kinda wonder why anyone would want to be a leader at the moment. The war could go on for years. And Macron has already done loads of state intervention to protect people from energy price rises. Seems like a poisoned chalice.

Some reports are saying the beaver voters (to block the right) might not even be bothered to vote.

This is the latest poll the BBC are highlighting, most others show le pen support as a bit less. They missed out his ! in the party name, it sounds even more lame translated to English

 

[SpanishPink]

Two weeks of this!
For the same old result in the end... Please wake me up in 5 years!
French Republic of the statu quo, I'd like to move it, move it!

 

[Romy]

Two weeks of this!
For the same old result in the end... Please wake me up in 5 years!
French Republic of the statu quo, I'd like to move it, move it!

Do you live in France ?

 

[Yel]

For the same old result in the end

Well it's not like those kind of words have ever come back to bite

 

[SpanishPink]

Do you live in France ?

Oui ! Toi aussi ?
Quand je lis les étrangers qui comparent la situation à la Pologne et la Hongrie...
10 % de la population française est immigrée, ce n'est pas du tout comparable.

Rien qu'avec les votants qui soutiennent et bénéficient du système de protection sociale extrêmement généreux il y a déjà une barrière.

Si les personnes à l'étranger qui se ruinent pour leurs dépenses de santé savaient pour toutes les fausses cartes vitales en circulation ici, et les pensions de retraite versées à des personnes décédées de 100 ans+, ils hallucineraient...

 

[Romy]

View attachment 1185594




Oui ! Toi aussi ?
Quand je lis les étrangers qui comparent la situation à la Pologne et la Hongrie...
10 % de la population française est immigrée, ce n'est pas du tout comparable.

Rien qu'avec les votants qui soutiennent et bénéficient du système de protection sociale extrêmement généreux il y a déjà une barrière.

Si les personnes à l'étranger qui se ruinent pour leurs dépenses de santé savaient pour toutes les fausses cartes vitales en circulation ici, et les pensions de retraite versées à des personnes décédées de 100 ans+, ils hallucineraient...

Ah oui, la situation n'est pas du tout comparable et pas seulement par rapport au taux d'immigration.

Mais je ne comprends pas où tu veux en venir en fait. (Je continue en anglais).

If we have Macron vs Le Pen again, it's probably because of the alternatives. Nothing thrilling or really new. Macron represents the stability, Le Pen the protest. Melenchon is probably too radical for most French people and some traditionally left wing voters are not happy because of his former declarations Poutine. Anyway, the perfect candidate doesn't exis and people are jaded.