How bad is it going to get?
This is a very brilliant virus. It spreads before it even gives you the first cough, and that is what makes it so difficult to control. We know the cases we have seen so far are the tip of an iceberg, but nobody can quite figure out what is the shape, depth and size of that iceberg.
It is really unlike the Sars outbreak, where there was no iceberg at all: everyone who got infected got sick and it was fairly easy to contain. The 2002-3 outbreak resulted in fewer than 800 deaths and no cases have been reported since 2004.
A huge community effort in China has helped bring down the rate of new cases of the coronavirus, but the economy has tanked and has to be restarted. So you would expect to see the numbers creep back up.
The big question is how big the second wave of infections will be, and whether it is controllable. Can you stop very sharp peaks that might overwhelm hospital capacity? That is what the UK strategy is all about — to flatten the peaks and, in effect, delay the epidemic.
Professor Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine, Hong Kong University
This is a very brilliant virus. It spreads before it even gives you the first cough, and that is what makes it so difficult to control. We know the cases we have seen so far are the tip of an iceberg, but nobody can quite figure out what is the shape, depth and size of that iceberg.
It is really unlike the Sars outbreak, where there was no iceberg at all: everyone who got infected got sick and it was fairly easy to contain. The 2002-3 outbreak resulted in fewer than 800 deaths and no cases have been reported since 2004.
A huge community effort in China has helped bring down the rate of new cases of the coronavirus, but the economy has tanked and has to be restarted. So you would expect to see the numbers creep back up.
The big question is how big the second wave of infections will be, and whether it is controllable. Can you stop very sharp peaks that might overwhelm hospital capacity? That is what the UK strategy is all about — to flatten the peaks and, in effect, delay the epidemic.
Professor Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine, Hong Kong University