House Prices

[Caffeine Fiend]

I'm constantly looking at houses as we are going to upsize in the next few years. In this area any houses which have gone on the market which we'd be looking at have sold within 3 or 4 days. Some have sold before theyve even hit the market. I cant say what theyve sold for of course.

We are saving like mad to have a good amount to put down on our next house so we wont be moving in the immediate future anyway.

 

[Yel]

The thing is house prices are largely linked to how easy it is to get credit / the money supply. High LTV mortgages aren't your friend as they push up the prices.

I'd rather have a house for 150k with an 80% mortgage than the same house costing 300k with a 95% mortgage.

 

[Pixipoppy]

The thing is house prices are largely linked to how easy it is to get credit / the money supply. High LTV mortgages aren't your friend as they push up the prices.

I'd rather have a house for 150k with an 80% mortgage than the same house costing 300k with a 95% mortgage.

Oh for sure, the less we have to borrow the better! But even to get one of the cheapest houses in our area with 80% LTV we’d need a minimum of 30 odd grand which just isn’t going to happen. We could probably get a small flat with what we have now but I just don’t feel like a leasehold flat is a very good investment considering we’d have already outgrown it by the time we move in!

 

[Yel]

Oh for sure, the less we have to borrow the better! But even to get one of the cheapest houses in our area with 80% LTV we’d need a minimum of 30 odd grand which just isn’t going to happen. We could probably get a small flat with what we have now but I just don’t feel like a leasehold flat is a very good investment considering we’d have already outgrown it by the time we move in!

I just think no point rushing now, can't see them going up and they fell quite a bit in 2008 and what we have now is way way worse than that (and lots don't realise it yet). We're still in furlough world right now so it feels like everything is fine and just going to carry on.

House price inflation was close to 0 even before covid:

Repeating myself but in 2008 they had loads of fiscal tools to use, but they've mostly used now and things were just limping along not out of the last recession so a rampant recovery seems unlikely.

 

[hnoz]

The thing is house prices are largely linked to how easy it is to get credit / the money supply. High LTV mortgages aren't your friend as they push up the prices.

I'd rather have a house for 150k with an 80% mortgage than the same house costing 300k with a 95% mortgage.

I’m sure everyone would rather have the same house for £150k and 80% LTV than if it cost 300k but there are huge areas of the country where this just isn’t a choice and property just costs more.

 

[Yel]

I’m sure everyone would rather have the same house for £150k and 80% LTV than if it cost 300k but there are huge areas of the country where this just isn’t a choice and property just costs more.

I wasn't saying it was a choice you could make now but that low Ltv pushes up prices.

 

[Moe]

In 2008 certain areas seemed to be immune. London M4 corridor Brighton and Hove. I’m sure there were other areas but they were the ones I noticed.
The market is red hot at the moment and Estate Agents are the busiest they have been for 4 years.
If I was a first time buyer I would definitely hold back but I suspect in desirable areas there won’t be that much of a drop.
I hope I’m wrong as this is one of my pet hates young people being priced out unless they have bank of Mum and Dad.
I remember years ago listening to a doctor who worked at the Royal Sussex saying he couldn’t afford to buy in Brighton. Says it all really.

 

[Yel]

In 2008 certain areas seemed to be immune. London M4 corridor Brighton and Hove.

Brighton did fall in 2008, by 20% at the most from land registry figures. But with all the printing of money it bounced back, graph from land registry below:

But much of London and the south east stoped increasing a few years ago. People were already tapped out even before covid. So I really wouldn't rush into anything at all if you're boring a large amount of money.

 

[Moe]

Brighton did fall in 2008, by 20% at the most from land registry figures. But with all the printing of money it bounced back, graph from land registry below:

But much of London and the south east stoped increasing a few years ago. People were already tapped out even before covid. So I really wouldn't rush into anything at all if you're boring a large amount of money.

View attachment 200780

That’s interesting seeing that graph. It certainly didn’t feel like it dropped at the time especially in the areas I was looking at.
Will be interesting to see what they try to throw at it this time round.

 

[Yel]

The bank of England were expecting things to get back to normal by April 2021 with the v shaped recovery, and now they think the end of 2021.

I know they have to be very optimistic to give good sentiment. But it's ridiculously wishful thinking that it would ever be a V shape when the economy was on life support even before forced shut downs. No doubt they'll revise it down again come next year and things don't bounce back to normal.

They're also saying most furlough workers will return to their job. Very wishful imo.

Maybe they're factoring in very high inflation in getting back to normal? They were always fudging the inflation figures when it was high.

 

[Esbeepea]

I just feel really frustrated at the moment. In the last 6 years or so we paid off a significant amount of debt (35k+) and are now debt-free. We sold our home in 2018 and made some money back which is our next deposit, we're currently renting.

Since selling our affordability has been affected by two things mainly 1) childcare - was pretty high pre-covid (£700/month) and 2) defaults on file owing to going into a DMP.

So we've waited until our 30 hours free childcare kicks in and the defaults are about to drop off and now the LTV rate on mortgages change has meant the deposit we had saved isn't going to get us the size of home we want and our credit history isn't helping. So just as it felt like we were getting somewhere we're back to square one again. I've contacted some local house builders to inquire about HTB schemes as this seems like the only viable option for us. We're not struggling where we are but I'm conscious that we want things that come with owning a home again, like being able to have pets, decorate etc.

I just don't know what to do for the best other than sit, wait and save.

 

[Italy2]

I just feel really frustrated at the moment. In the last 6 years or so we paid off a significant amount of debt (35k+) and are now debt-free. We sold our home in 2018 and made some money back which is our next deposit, we're currently renting.

Since selling our affordability has been affected by two things mainly 1) childcare - was pretty high pre-covid (£700/month) and 2) defaults on file owing to going into a DMP.

So we've waited until our 30 hours free childcare kicks in and the defaults are about to drop off and now the LTV rate on mortgages change has meant the deposit we had saved isn't going to get us the size of home we want and our credit history isn't helping. So just as it felt like we were getting somewhere we're back to square one again. I've contacted some local house builders to inquire about HTB schemes as this seems like the only viable option for us. We're not struggling where we are but I'm conscious that we want things that come with owning a home again, like being able to have pets, decorate etc.

I just don't know what to do for the best other than sit, wait and save.

One of my friends works at a bank and she was telling me that the banks are planning to bring high LTV mortgages back at the end of the year. So maybe like you said just save and wait for them to come back? I really think that they would come back to support first time buyers because as much the landlords can benefit from stamp duty exemption, it doesn't help first time buyers.

The house prices are far too disproportionate to people's salaries. People's salaries up north are not that great and it is hard for people to save up a deposit as first time buyers.

 

[Yel]

One of my friends works at a bank and she was telling me that the banks are planning to bring high LTV mortgages back at the end of the year. So maybe like you said just save and wait for them to come back? I really think that they would come back to support first time buyers because as much the landlords can benefit from stamp duty exemption, it doesn't help first time buyers.

The house prices are far too disproportionate to people's salaries. People's salaries up north are not that great and it is hard for people to save up a deposit as first time buyers.

Of course they want to bring back high LTV loans as it pushes up prices / keeps them high and protects their balance sheet.

The answer to high prices should not be to borrow ever more, but for prices to fall.

 

[Italy2]

Of course they want to bring back high LTV loans as it pushes up prices / keeps them high and protects their balance sheet.

The answer to high prices should not be to borrow ever more, but for prices to fall.

In an ideal world, yes we would wish for the house prices to fall. Reality is far from my wishful thinking though where house prices seem to keep increasing even after the pandemic.

 

[Pixipoppy]

Are house prices rising? Or is it just my area? A 2 bed terraced house that usually would go for about £200k max seem to be going up for £230/240. Honestly this just feels like I’m running through a tunnel and the exit is just getting further and further away! Plus the new build we were told would be released under £300k has just been released for over meaning we can’t use HTB. I feel like we’ve gone from having a few options to just resigning myself to renting for another couple of years which I really don’t want to do.

Surely a recession will mean a drop in prices?

 

[idk2]

Are house prices rising? Or is it just my area? A 2 bed terraced house that usually would go for about £200k max seem to be going up for £230/240. Honestly this just feels like I’m running through a tunnel and the exit is just getting further and further away! Plus the new build we were told would be released under £300k has just been released for over meaning we can’t use HTB. I feel like we’ve gone from having a few options to just resigning myself to renting for another couple of years which I really don’t want to do.

Surely a recession will mean a drop in prices?

I'm no expert but yeah, I believe they'll be a significant drop in housing prices by early 2021. They had their fun overinflating prices these last few months but it'll come crashing down. A lot of experts have said its a good time to sell rn but not a good time to buy, we were told to hold out until next year as we are first time buyers and do not want to a new build or to use HTB.

My area has been significantly over valued for the longest time. Estate agents are also putting bidders against each others, dont get dragged in to bidding wars. If someone else wants to offer over asking price, go for it but it could never be me especially if the house isnt worth it. 3 bedroom houses going for 400k is ridiculous.

 

[Kim Mild]

Are house prices rising? Or is it just my area? A 2 bed terraced house that usually would go for about £200k max seem to be going up for £230/240. Honestly this just feels like I’m running through a tunnel and the exit is just getting further and further away! Plus the new build we were told would be released under £300k has just been released for over meaning we can’t use HTB. I feel like we’ve gone from having a few options to just resigning myself to renting for another couple of years which I really don’t want to do.

Surely a recession will mean a drop in prices?

The houses coming up in our area seem really overpriced too.

I read that in 2020 30% of sold houses have gone for over 98% of their asking price.

 

[Kmt2019]

I have seen prices in my area go up 40k in the last year alone. Regarding house prices and the recession, I think they may stay the same or drop in London, but outside of London I don’t think they will drop due to other factors to consider.

1. COVID-19 allowing people to work from home, therefore not needing to live in London and not needing to commute. Therefore wanting to buy places with more space and land.

2. Stamp duty being cancelled, therefore making people who have been wanting to buy do it sooner to make the most of the saving. Also it makes buying more property v attractive to people who already have property, but want more for buy to let / property portfolios.

3. Lack of good quality housing stock. There are new build estates popping up all over the place, but majority arn’t built to last. Demand outweighs the supply for quality housing.

I’m no estate agent or expert, but that is just my two pence!

 

[Tublet83]

I have seen prices in my area go up 40k in the last year alone. Regarding house prices and the recession, I think they may stay the same or drop in London, but outside of London I don’t think they will drop due to other factors to consider.

1. COVID-19 allowing people to work from home, therefore not needing to live in London and not needing to commute. Therefore wanting to buy places with more space and land.

2. Stamp duty being cancelled, therefore making people who have been wanting to buy do it sooner to make the most of the saving. Also it makes buying more property v attractive to people who already have property, but want more for buy to let / property portfolios.

3. Lack of good quality housing stock. There are new build estates popping up all over the place, but majority arn’t built to last. Demand outweighs the supply for quality housing.

I’m no estate agent or expert, but that is just my two pence!

Working from home – how it has impacted the property market

Over half the population’s working circumstances have changed with around 34% of people being told they will continue to work solely from home and a further 22% being told that they will continue to work partly from home and partly from the office. How will this shift in working circumstances...

www.guildproperty.co.uk

Exactly what this report says...more people happy to commute, and less London centric (which isn’t a bad thing for the country at all!)

 

[Kim Mild]

I have seen prices in my area go up 40k in the last year alone. Regarding house prices and the recession, I think they may stay the same or drop in London, but outside of London I don’t think they will drop due to other factors to consider.

1. COVID-19 allowing people to work from home, therefore not needing to live in London and not needing to commute. Therefore wanting to buy places with more space and land.

2. Stamp duty being cancelled, therefore making people who have been wanting to buy do it sooner to make the most of the saving. Also it makes buying more property v attractive to people who already have property, but want more for buy to let / property portfolios.

3. Lack of good quality housing stock. There are new build estates popping up all over the place, but majority arn’t built to last. Demand outweighs the supply for quality housing.

I’m no estate agent or expert, but that is just my two pence!

I also think lockdown has made people realise they want something different from the house they live in, examples more space or a garden so they are keen to move .