I’m no fan of BoJo. Once upon a time, my ideal Prime Minister would’ve been Vince Cable. BUT I am really tired of seeing all this “we’re fucked” rhetoric.
We’re not fucked. We’re one of the richest democracies in the world, and we have a loooong way to slide in principle and economic terms before we are living in standards working classes in the UK enjoyed (suffered) in the 80s or, quite frankly, the majority of humans on this planet live in TODAY. Even if we come out of the EU (I don’t think we will, like the Hotel California you can check out any time you like but you can never leave) we are still allies with the EU. As we are with the US. Trade brings countries together where politics divides.
The point is, regardless of the political colour or figurehead in charge of this country, as a nation we are pretty good at business. And while ever there’s wealth flowing in like that we will survive pretty well until a general election can be called. See the US’s economic upturn under Trump, who has to be one of the most hated and politically opposed leaders in the West.
It’s time to pull together and lobby for important things, like social reform to help the most vulnerable, or better funding for schools. Things that matter. So sick of of X Factor style politics and Brexit left-right wars, it’s bullshit.
I have liked your post because you put effort into it, but i disagree profoundly with much of its content.
First,, your take on British business I am sadly old enough to remember things pre 1973. At that time, British industry was on its knees: partly though the overmighty subject that was union power, and partly through poor management, which had failed to invest in modernisation - and when they did, the unions often opposed them. .. Unions did not grow by accident: they grew because industrial practises were so poor. The car industry was dying through poor design and poor labour practises. The name "British Leyland" was a joke, and too often new cars broke down and there was reference to a "Friday afternoon job" . By the end of the 70s, Britain was known as 'the sick man of Europe' and people joked you could tell the time by the strikes. There was galloping inflation. Income tax in 1979 stood at 83% for the highest paid and they could also face up to a further 15% on unearned income.. Aircraft companies like de Havilland, Hawker Siddeley and Vickers gradually failed.
So many private industries had failed by 1979, that many were absorbed as nationalised industries to keep them afloat. I cannot recall every one, but amongst them were: Rolls Royce; Jaguar; British Airways; British shipyards; National Freight; British Leyland; This was in addition to industries which were state run or had had been nationalised for political purposes which included water, electricity, gas, telephones, mines, the NHS; Ordnance Survey; National Ordnance.
Prior to 1973, politically, UK was in the position it will be with 'no deal'. Too often the news was consumed with the balance of payments deficit, because we imported more than we exported. We started in a deficit here, because we have needed to import food for decades. But it was also the case that foreign goods were often of better quality and more reliable.
Politically, we had allies in the Commonwealth, but is was no longer the Empire, so we were not free to exploit the colonies as we had done. The Commonwealth did not provide the road to British economic success. In reality it was either the USA or the countries of Western Europe, many of which had formed themselves into a Common Market.
The USA by the 60s/70s was then as now: a more powerful ally which had industrial strength and a market in numbers which the UK did not have. As such, it had an influence which it could uise in foreign policy. e.g. in 1956, when Eisenhower found out about the Suez operation, he stopped it in its tracks and threatened to bankrupt the UK. In the late 60s, Harold Wilson did very well to stop UK entering the Vietnam War. There has been a suggestion that the devaluation of the pound in the late 60s was due to US meddling.
In the Far East, South Korea and especially Japan were in process of becoming industrial giants.
Against that backdrop, UK politicians of the time (who had fought in WWI or WWII, made the decision to apply to join the Common Masrket and were rebuffed at least twice. It took the death of de Gaulle, before the UK could scrape in.
I am not going to recount the 45 years since we signed up to ther Common Market, but yoiu can see for yourself that the UK isdd now in a position which is far away from the disaster of the 70s. Low inflation; and until Art 50 was launched, a high credit rating. Integrated supply chains with the EU and car industry which has been doing well but it is foreign owned, Our aero industry such as it is, is predicated on the EU> The airforce uses Eurofighters. Until the Referendum result, the UK had become the home for the bankers for Europe,
If we leave without a deal, we are fucked.
Supply chains will be disrupted and in the short term, there will be food and medicine shortages. The lorry fleet will likely get gridlocked into the Kent roads. Large financial institutions will continue there transfer to EU states. The car industry is at risk. The airbus work will likely disappear over time. There will probably be civil unrest.
And why? Because by 2016, Boris Johnson had an overwhelming desire to become PM. He could see George Osborne as Chancellor was higher in the pecking order, so when Cameron foolhardily was pushed into the Referendum,. Johnson sat down and wrote 2 articles: one about staying in and the other for leave. He opted for Leave, reckoning he would lose but it would raise his profile further, especially with the Tory RW.
And now see where we are.....if 'no deal' goes thorough, we likely lose Northern Ireland and Scotland, and ugly English nationalism will preside over a low tax low wage economy.
There will be no money for public sector reforms such as education or social housing, and the NHS will likely be sold to the US healthcare system in return for a trade deal, once again on US terms. GDP will erode as overseas investors withdraw their capital. The currency will go through the floor even more than it has done already.
